Dear Traders,
Event: On 14 Feb from 10 AM to 1 PM we are holding our Traders Club meeting at CIMB Auditorium Damansara . (Map attached- the auditorium is next to IBBM) We have Nigel Foo, head of research for CIMB to give a 2009 market outlook and shares to look at. In 2008, He correctly predicted the 42 % drop in the KLSE, the 70 % drop in Crude Palm Oil and the collapse in crude oil.
What is his current forecast ? You would be surprised.
One of our club members from Jakarta is flying over to share his recent trades in the US market + point and figure strategies in the CI CPO futures by Martin. I may speak on opportunities in the China as well as localmarket.
Please confirm your attendance as CIMB will provide refreshments.
Shanghai is up over 22 % from its low and has had an 18 day line change up - one of the most powerful indicators of trend change. This is a Turtle Traders indicator.
PMI figures in China moved from 41.2 to 45.3 % in December stunning the markets who were expecting a drop and the first hopeful sign that the horrific meltdown in the base metals might finally be at a bottom. New orders for exports and production rose strongly indicating that Bejing's 4 trillion Yuan (186 billion RM) stimulus plan has already started to have a positive impact.
Chinese banks have extended about 1.2 Trillion yuan in new loans in January, a monthly record in calls by the government to halt the economies decline.
Copper traders in Shanghai have lifted the red metal over 12 % from the lows while stockpiles have dwindled to a record low.
From a contrary point of view: Before the 75 % collapse in the Shanghai Index, beginning in the 4th quarter of 2007 there was heavy promotion of China Country funds. I counted at least 12 full page ads for China funds.
Many sheeps went to the slaughter house.
For the last few weeks as Shanghai had a powerful rally, I did not see one news ad for a China fund. It looks like the Tigers are quietly buying. For those with Phillip Singapore Wrap acounts we offer several China funds but obviously you need to manage your risks. I can help you choose a good one and if interested give me or Martin a call.
The recovery in China and base metals will definitely support Malaysia, Australia, Korea, Hong Kong stock markets and the AUD Man funds as well as the AUD.
The Chinese as well as most Asian economies are on much more stable footing than the US/ UK. The Chinese economy is run prudently and the banks are sitting on top of huge cash reserves.
The Chinese economy is built on savings and productivity as opposed to the US economy which is built on debt, living and spending beyond ones means. Many big name Investment banks and money center banks are built on a culture of fraud with the collusion of corrupt politicians and SEC regulators. No wonder scared savers have lost trust in the US banks and have rushed into Treasury bonds that pay almost no return. Many prominent US banks are technically insolvent
In China a corrupt banker will be shot at the execution ground with a bullet in the back of his head. In America the corrupt banker will get a multimillion dollar bonus paid by the taxpayer as part of the stimulus bailut plan ! Even the arch con man Bernie Madoff who stole upwards of USD 50 billion from thousands of investors continues to live in luxury in his 4 million condo. Because of his political connections he is untouchable. Some cheated investor hopefully should put a bullet in his head.
I am grateful to be living and working in Malaysia where our financial system is on real ground rather than fantasy land.
While technical analysis concentrate on price and volume, fundamentalists focus on economic forces that drive the economy
. Fundamentists study the cause while technical traders study the effect. Most traders use a combination of both approaches. The problem is that charts and fundamentals are often in conflict with each other. Usually at the beginning of market moves, the fundamentals do not explain or support what the market is doing. These are the critical times which traders looking for certainty and confirmation will miss the boat. Once the market moves the fundamentals are evident but it is too late.
It is like a bouncing ball. The most acceleration happens when the ball hits the support. Once the ball goes up it loses momentum and falls back.
Event: On 14 Feb from 10 AM to 1 PM we are holding our Traders Club meeting at CIMB Auditorium Damansara . (Map attached- the auditorium is next to IBBM) We have Nigel Foo, head of research for CIMB to give a 2009 market outlook and shares to look at. In 2008, He correctly predicted the 42 % drop in the KLSE, the 70 % drop in Crude Palm Oil and the collapse in crude oil.
What is his current forecast ? You would be surprised.
One of our club members from Jakarta is flying over to share his recent trades in the US market + point and figure strategies in the CI CPO futures by Martin. I may speak on opportunities in the China as well as localmarket.
Please confirm your attendance as CIMB will provide refreshments.
Shanghai is up over 22 % from its low and has had an 18 day line change up - one of the most powerful indicators of trend change. This is a Turtle Traders indicator.
PMI figures in China moved from 41.2 to 45.3 % in December stunning the markets who were expecting a drop and the first hopeful sign that the horrific meltdown in the base metals might finally be at a bottom. New orders for exports and production rose strongly indicating that Bejing's 4 trillion Yuan (186 billion RM) stimulus plan has already started to have a positive impact.
Chinese banks have extended about 1.2 Trillion yuan in new loans in January, a monthly record in calls by the government to halt the economies decline.
Copper traders in Shanghai have lifted the red metal over 12 % from the lows while stockpiles have dwindled to a record low.
From a contrary point of view: Before the 75 % collapse in the Shanghai Index, beginning in the 4th quarter of 2007 there was heavy promotion of China Country funds. I counted at least 12 full page ads for China funds.
Many sheeps went to the slaughter house.
For the last few weeks as Shanghai had a powerful rally, I did not see one news ad for a China fund. It looks like the Tigers are quietly buying. For those with Phillip Singapore Wrap acounts we offer several China funds but obviously you need to manage your risks. I can help you choose a good one and if interested give me or Martin a call.
The recovery in China and base metals will definitely support Malaysia, Australia, Korea, Hong Kong stock markets and the AUD Man funds as well as the AUD.
The Chinese as well as most Asian economies are on much more stable footing than the US/ UK. The Chinese economy is run prudently and the banks are sitting on top of huge cash reserves.
The Chinese economy is built on savings and productivity as opposed to the US economy which is built on debt, living and spending beyond ones means. Many big name Investment banks and money center banks are built on a culture of fraud with the collusion of corrupt politicians and SEC regulators. No wonder scared savers have lost trust in the US banks and have rushed into Treasury bonds that pay almost no return. Many prominent US banks are technically insolvent
In China a corrupt banker will be shot at the execution ground with a bullet in the back of his head. In America the corrupt banker will get a multimillion dollar bonus paid by the taxpayer as part of the stimulus bailut plan ! Even the arch con man Bernie Madoff who stole upwards of USD 50 billion from thousands of investors continues to live in luxury in his 4 million condo. Because of his political connections he is untouchable. Some cheated investor hopefully should put a bullet in his head.
I am grateful to be living and working in Malaysia where our financial system is on real ground rather than fantasy land.
While technical analysis concentrate on price and volume, fundamentalists focus on economic forces that drive the economy
. Fundamentists study the cause while technical traders study the effect. Most traders use a combination of both approaches. The problem is that charts and fundamentals are often in conflict with each other. Usually at the beginning of market moves, the fundamentals do not explain or support what the market is doing. These are the critical times which traders looking for certainty and confirmation will miss the boat. Once the market moves the fundamentals are evident but it is too late.
It is like a bouncing ball. The most acceleration happens when the ball hits the support. Once the ball goes up it loses momentum and falls back.
For those with Ameritrade accounts check out FCX Freeport McMoran which is a play on copper. It has formed a classic stage 1, support has been tested 6 times as of this writing and each test is on lower volume meaning selling has dried up. FCX has collapsed from 116 USD per share and is now at USD 27. Risk 20 % from this level with the chance of a 100 % return within 6 months. News is really bad but remember bad news is the friend of the smart money buyers.
Have a good week ahead and continue to focus on high grade blue chip KLSE shares which pay dividends.
Bill
Have a good week ahead and continue to focus on high grade blue chip KLSE shares which pay dividends.
Bill
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