Next Master the Markets Foundation Course 1.5 days - Sept 14-15, 2009. Call Dolly 03 4252 4149 to register ! Bursa Malaysia (KLSE) :-) martin_tf_wong@hotmail.com: 2008

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

4:47 pm - Gamuda is set to break higher !


Buy if it break and close rm1.90 and put your stop at rm1.75

4:34 pm - KLCI did close well today !


11:31 am - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine

Dear Traders,

Below is my outlook for the stock market in 2009. It will be published in Malaysian Business in their end Jan edition:

By the way, we plan a Traders Club meeting on Sat 7 Feb at 10 AM at CIMB auditorium and plan to have the head of Technical analysis of CIMB - (to be confirmed) - who will give his 2009 stock market outlook. Please let me know if you wish to attend Attached is the latest valuation of Man Essential, the recent launch. (30 Nov 2008 valuation)


How to Minimize your Costs and Risks while riding the 2009 stock market Bull


Below is a prophetic chart from Deutsche Bank research. It shows that stock markets bottom out a little more than half-way through recessions.



Based on this chart, I expect that 2009 will likely be a much better year for the markets than the year we have just endured. From this chart it appears that we are more than half way through the recession and probability is high that we will soon have a market recovery.

The Fuel to drive the Bull

We are on the verge of the Obama administration “stimulating” the US economy through public works and infrastructure projects, likely to the tune of nearly $1 trillion.
Obama’s program is likely to stimulate the economy and invigorate world markets in the near term.

The Federal Reserve has also signaled that it will do everything within its power to stimulate the economy. In the eyes of central planners, desperate times call for desperate measures. And the Fed is clearly desperate.
With their latest policy statement, issued on 22 December 2008, it is clear that the monetary helicopters have arrived. Not only have short term interest rates been cut to nearly zero, the Fed has also stated that it will resort to “alternative” means to juice the economy.

Have a prosporous New Year,
Bill

9:32 am - KLCI is set to move higher after testing support @ 860


Monday, December 29, 2008

10:02 am - Chart of the Week - Kossan


Wait for Kossan to break Rm2.86 and buy. Put your stop below rm2.65

Friday, December 26, 2008

Thursday, December 25, 2008

9:02 am - Merry Xmas and Happy New Year !

Next week, I will be back in my CIMB's office in Commerce Square. We will do our live trading in the first week of 2009.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

9:06 am - Malaysian shares seen flat in thin holiday trade

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 24 (Reuters) -

Malaysian shares are expected to open little changed in thin holiday trading on Wednesday after U.S. stocks extended losses overnight. "Stocks should extend range-bound trade amid weak investor participation ahead of the Christmas holiday tomorrow," said research firm TA Securities in its morning note. Malaysia's benchmark stock index closed Tuesday 0.26 percent lower at 871.16. "The bearish external lead from further drop in overnight U.S. markets given concerns over the viability of the U.S. auto industry, plunging home prices and worsening recession should act to dampen sentiment in the near term," said TA. U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday on further deterioration in the housing market, while worry over weak consumer spending hurt retailers in the final stretch of the Christmas shopping season. Here are the factors that may affect Malaysian stocks on Wednesday. >



Malaysia Airports gets nod for restructuring plan > Malaysia AirAsia, Sime in talks on new airport > Asia bond sales set to pick up as freeze relents > Etisalat says its Iran licence bid was highest > Malaysia's auto sales down 6.7 pct Nov yr/yr > US housing slide worsens; Spain joins recession > Biden says deal near on US economic stimulus plan > Wall St stumbles on economic data, retail anxiety > Oil falls below $39 on economic gloom > SEA Stocks-S'pore near 2-week low, Thai, Manila gain > Dollar gains vs yen, down vs euro in thin trading > Longer-dated bonds rise on weak home sales data > Gold slips on profit-taking in thin trade

9:04 am - KLCI is heading lower low - most likely today !


Monday, December 22, 2008

5:03 pm - An interesting counter - AFG broke previous high


If it take out the high of RM1.85, buy. Put your stop below rm1.58

4:52 pm - A upthrust bar - Bearish pattern for KLCI


Look for more downward or sideway market !

11:05 am - PBB has broken above 50 MA for the 1st time !


9:06 am - KLCI need to break above 879 to go higher !


8:57 pm - Market Outlook from Bill Wermine

Dear Traders,

Some of this is commentary from Investors Business Daily. It makes sense to have some quality KLSE shares going into 2009, I expect that 2009 will likely be a much better year for the markets than the year we have just endured. In the immediate term, the volatility index is in a downtrend. This implies that the wholesale liquidation is easing up.

We are also on the verge of the Obama administration “stimulating” the economy through public works and infrastructure projects, likely to the tune of nearly $1 trillion. It will be difficult for the new administration to surpass the previous administration’s level of corruption and “crony capitalism”, but I wouldn’t place a bet that they won’t.

And even without the inherent corruption, government stimulus plans are notoriously inefficient and wasteful. A quote from The Wall Street Journal, sums it up well:
"Keynesian 'pump-priming' in a recession has often been tried, and as an economic stimulus it is overrated. The money that the government spends has to come from somewhere, which means from the private economy in higher taxes or borrowing. The public works are usually less productive than the foregone private investment."

So, while the long-term implications will probably be a disaster, Obama’s program is likely to stimulate the economy and invigorate the markets in the near term.
The Federal Reserve has also signaled that it will do everything within its power to stimulate the economy. In the eyes of central planners, desperate times call for desperate measures. And the Fed is clearly desperate.

With their latest policy statement, issued on Tuesday, it is clear that the monetary helicopters have arrived. Not only have short term interest rates been cut to nearly zero, the Fed has also stated that it will resort to “alternative” means to juice the economy.

In typical fashion, the statement was crafted in language that obfuscates what is really going on. But when you strip away the complexities and jargon it amounts to this: (1) the Fed will use its balance sheet to manipulate the credit and equity markets directly and (2) the central bank will fabricate whatever amount of “money” is necessary to stimulate the economy.
And that brings me to the crux of the issue. We now know that it was a very bad idea to paper over the dot-com bubble with an even bigger bubble in real estate. Easy money and more debt did nothing but cause a greater problem down the road. It is the equivalent of trying to revive a drunk by pouring another shot of whisky down his throat.

And that is exactly what we are doing all over again, papering over all the previous bubbles with the biggest one of all – a bubble in government bonds. Forget the fundamentals for a moment (You know, like the fact that our government is in the hole for more than $70 trillion, when you factor in retirement and health care obligations, along with foreign debt) and just take a look at the chart of long-term U.S. Treasuries.

Just like all the other bubbles, this one too will eventually collapse.

Below is the TG chart of the US 30 year bond. Volume is dropping as price blows off which is evidence of no demand by professionals.
With interest rates at less than 2 % in most countries money will flow into equities and gold. Our paper money is guaranteed to lose purchasing power. Man funds is a safe haven no matter what happens

Have a Merry Christmas and prosporous New Year
Bill

8:55 am - Free Book from Tradeguider

Hi, Traders

Below is the link to download a complimentary PDF printable copy of "Master The Markets" by former syndicate trader and inventor of Volume Spread Analysis, Tom Williams. (Value $99.00). You will need a copy of Adobe Acrobat reader which you can download free from the link provided and note that the download takes about 3 minutes on a high speed connection and your screen will go blank as the download is in progress.

Here is the link to download the complimentary copy of "Master The Markets".

http://www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf

Here is a link to download Acrobat Reader if you do not have it:

http://www.download.com/Adobe-Reader/3000-2378_4-10000062.html
Here is the link to view the seminar filmed live in Kuala Lumpur:

http://www.tradeguider.com/malaysia/presentation.aspx

If you have any questions or need to contact us please call Darren Holmes at the number shown below.

Good Trading,

Gavin

Gavin Holmes
CEO
TradeGuider Systems International
111, W.Jackson Blvd, Suite 2010,
Chicago, Illinois, 60604
United States

Sunday, December 21, 2008

11:04 am - Chart of the Week - Multi Purpose Holding


Buy it if take out the high of last Friday. Put your stop at 0.95.

he

Friday, December 19, 2008

5:59 pm - KLCI on a weekly basis look good ! Breakout !


2:40 pm - PBB Bank is breaking upside !


Time to put some PB Bank shares in your portfolio. It is breaking out today !


Put your stop below rm8.00

10:52 am - KLCI is pulling back a bit as part of its test to go higher.


If KLCI does not lower than 867, we are alright !

Thursday, December 18, 2008

5:03 pm - KLCI break out with volume. That's good !


3:35 pm - IOI Corp breaking out !


18 L/C. Buy at the eod !

2:58 pm - RHBCapital is forming a 18 L/C - Pushing the Supply !


10:47 am - Bernie Madoff exposure !

Dear Traders,

Many of you including Martin and Myself are holding Man Hedge Fund. We had a scare yesterday when it was announced Asset manager Bernie Madoff was exposed in a Ponzi sceme and Man was exposed to the Madoff funds. Below is the response from PCM and Man Investments.

Bottom line: we can sleep at night.

The exposure is minimal (less than 1 %)and in fact Man made a return of 4 to 5 % in Nov. This is because Man is a fund of funds like a unit trust . If one share of a 100 share unit trust fund goes bankrupt it will minimally affect the portfolio)

In fact Man for 19 years has survived unprecedented market volatility, financial disasters, major financial collapses, extreme currency and commodity fluctuations and managed to prosper. Man has even prospered in 2008 in the face of 40- 50 % declines in most world equity markets

If you think 2009 will be more of the same give me a call to invest some more of your money and make money while most of the sheep investors go to the slaughter house.

Have a good Christmas Holiday and look forward to prosperity in 2009

Bill__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


We spoke to official of Man Investment regarding their exposure to the Madoff funds which were suspended by SEC to facilitate investigation into the Ponzi scheme to fraud investors.

According to the announcement of Man Group Plc, they have US$360m invested via RMF's funds. The amount represents about 1.5% of RMF's US$24bn fund. RMF does not have any direct investment in Madoff funds and the exposure is due to their investment in other hedge funds which may have some exposure to Madoff funds.

Those affected are basically the institutional portions. Whereas in the case of guarantee funds promoted by Man Australia, according to the official of Man Investment, the exposure is very very minimum via some of the 200+ funds that RMF invested.

Between the two funds that have some exposure to Madoff and some of our clients have invested in is OM-IP15Seven Series 2 launched end of 2006. The fund is 1/3 RMF four Season and 2/3 AHL. As at Oct '08, the fund price is at AUD1.2334 and is up another 4-5% in Nov (according to official of Man Investment) due to strong performance by AHL.

We recognise the risk of investing in hedge fund and some of the reasons we have chosen Man Investment are as follows:-
(a) Man Investment is a subsidiary of Man Group Plc, a London-listed company, which is regulated by the exchange.
(b) All the Man OM-IP funds have 3 components - bond, AHL and fund of hedge funds (eg RMF, Glenwood, Baywater etc) and hence more diversified.
(c) RMF being fund of hedge funds is well diversified and normally no more than 5% of the fund is invested in each hedge fund.

The fraud is unexpected and caught many investors by surprise. Due to the diversification of Man funds as well as the strong performance of AHL - a trend-following futures trader benefitting from the up and down of the markets, Man funds have performed well thus far, based on net asset value.

Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd

9:59 am - KLCI attempt to test 869 high




Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

5:30 pm - Kossan attempt to close the gap window




But the volume was low ! I believe Kossan is testing lower closing before moving higher !

4:21 pm - KLCI set up itself up ! That's good !


11:59 am - KLCI is down yesterday and up today !


Nothing interested to note of.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

1:47 pm - Stocks advance amid hope for automaker rescue

Stocks advance amid hope for automaker rescue NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street put on another impressive show of resilienceFriday, rebounding from an early sell-off to end higher after the governmentsaid it would assist troubled U.S. automakers. The market, which just a week earlier withstood a terrible Novemberemployment report, managed its advance after the Treasury Department said it wasprepared to assist the nation's Big Three automakers. The Dow Jones industrialaverage had fallen more than 200 points in early trading after the Senate hadkilled a $14 billion bailout package for the companies. "It's hard to say if this is indeed the beginning of a recovery, but itcould be," said Matt King, chief investment officer of Bell Investment Advisors."It seems like the past few Fridays we've ended the week on a positive note." A week ago, the market shook off the Labor Department's report that theeconomy lost a larger than expected 533,000 jobs in November. Investors areshowing a greater tolerance for bad economic and corporate news, and manyanalysts believe that the market may have reached a bottom after the horrificselling of the past three months. Since its Nov. 20 low, the Dow is up 14.3 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500is up 16.9 percent and the Nasdaq composite index has seen a gain of 17.1percent. Still, from their October 2007 highs, the Dow remains down by 39.1percent and the S&P 500 index is down 44 percent. The Nasdaq, which peaked atthe start of the decade, is down 46.1 percent from its recent top. Many analysts believe Wall Street is growing more confident that thegovernment's steps to stimulate the economy, including its $700 billion bankbailout program, will work. And so news that the Treasury Department could helpprevent bankruptcy filings and job losses in the auto industry helped turn themarket around Friday. "Things are looking a little bit brighter after they made thoseannouncements," said Anthony Conroy, managing director and head trader for BNYConvergEx Group. General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC have said they could run out of cashwithin weeks without government help. Ford Motor Co., which would also beeligible for aid under the bill, has said it has enough cash to make it throughnext year. Some of the market's moves Friday were with an eye toward next week'sFederal Reserve decision on interest rates. The two-day meeting begins Monday;the Fed is widely expected to lower its key federal funds rate half a percentagepoint to 0.5 percent, another step by the government toward lifting the economyout of recession. The Dow rose 64.59, or 0.75 percent, to 8,629.68. The Dow tumbled 196 pointsThursday as worries intensified that the auto bill would stall in the Senate. The S&P 500 index rose 6.14, or 0.70 percent, to 879.73, and the Nasdaq rose32.84, or 2.18 percent, to 1,540.72. For the week, the Dow ended with a loss of fewer than 6 points, or 0.07percent. The S&P 500 rose 0.42 percent, while the Nasdaq advanced 2.08 percentbecause of Friday's gains. For the year, the Dow is down 34.9 percent, the S&P500 is down 40.1 percent and the Nasdaq is off 41.9 percent. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 17.22, or 3.82 percent, to468.43 Friday. The number of stocks advancing outpaced decliners by 3-to-2 on the New YorkStock Exchange, where consolidated trading volume came to 5.12 billion sharescompared with 5.39 billion Thursday. Bond prices were mixed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note,which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.58 percent from 2.63 percent lateThursday. The yield on the three-month T-bill rose to 0.04 percent from 0.02percent late Thursday. The bill has been in great demand because of the safetyit offers investors. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold pricesdeclined. Light, sweet crude fell $1.70 to settle at $46.28 on the New York MercantileExchange. The day's economic news showed continuing weakness, but, as it has done witha steady stream of downbeat data in recent weeks, the market shrugged. The Labor Department said wholesale prices sank in November for the fourthstraight month, raising deflation fears. The Producer Price Index fell agreater-than-expected 2.2 percent as prices for gasoline and other energy pricesretreated. That followed a record 2.8 percent drop in October. Businesses also slashed inventories in October by the largest amount in fiveyears. The Commerce Department said businesses cut what was on shelves and backlots by 0.6 percent, triple the 0.2 percent decline economists expected. The Commerce Department said retail sales fell by 1.8 percent in November.The decline was less than the 1.9 percent slide economists expected but the dropmarked the fifth straight monthly decline -- a period of weakness never beforeseen on the government's retail sales records. Next week's readings include the Consumer Price Index and housing starts forNovember. The week also brings quarterly results from Wall Street's brokerages, whichhave been badly hurt by the stock market's tumble, the slowdown in the economyand the freeze-up in the credit markets. GM ended down 18 cents, or 4.4 percent, at $3.94 after declining as much as37 percent in the session. Ford rose 14 cents, or 4.8 percent, to $3.04.Chrysler isn't publicly traded. But even a potential lifeline for Detroit couldn't ease all the concernsabout job losses. Bank of America Corp. said late Thursday it expected to cut asmany as 35,000 jobs over the next three years, including some from investmentbank Merrill Lynch & Co., which it agreed to buy in September. Bank of Americarose 2 cents to $14.93. Investors grappled with further prospects of diminished confidence in WallStreet. Late Thursday, Wall Street veteran Bernard L. Madoff was arrested on asecurities fraud charge. Madoff, who 18 years ago was chairman of the Nasdaqstock market, was accused of running a phony investment business that lost atleast $50 billion and that he called a "giant Ponzi scheme," prosecutors said. "It's not a happy day when you see a $50 billion fraud," said Ken Mayland,president of research firm ClearView Economics. "Things like that will justerode the public's confidence in the market." Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 5.56 percent. Britain's FTSE 100fell 2.47 percent, Germany's DAX index slid 2.18 percent, and France's CAC-40declined 2.80 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week down 5.74, or 0.07 percent,at 8,629.68. The Standard & Poor's 500 index finished up 3.66, or 0.42 percent,at 879.73. The Nasdaq composite index ended the week up 31.41, or 2.08 percent,at 1,540.72. The Russell 2000 index finished the week up 7.34, or 1.59 percent, at468.43. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted indexthat measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended at 8,800.18, up 63.04 points,or 0.72 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 14,993.96.

1:03 pm - Chart of the Week - Sunway


Many tests appearing for Sunway.
Buy on Monday above RM0.75 and place your stops below Rm0.66.

11:23 - Professionals are distributing them now !


Be careful as Bstead can drop anytime !

Friday, December 12, 2008

5:48 pm - KLCI closed lower in line with regional



2:43 pm - KLCI down due to auto bail news failing !


Asian Stocks, U.S. Futures, Dollar Tumble as Auto Bailout Fails

By Chen Shiyin and Chua Kong Ho
Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks, U.S. index futures and the dollar tumbled after the Senate rejected a $14 billion automaker bailout plan for American automakers, threatening millions of jobs and a deepening of the global recession.
Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. tumbled more than 11 percent on concern the failure of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC would threaten suppliers that also serve Asian automakers. Denso Corp., the world’s largest listed auto-parts maker, plunged 10 percent. The dollar fell to a 13-year low against the yen, while the cost of protecting Asian bonds against default advanced. Treasuries rose, pushing two-year note yields to a record low. Metal and crude oil prices slumped.
“A potential failure in U.S. automakers will have immediate reverberations throughout the U.S. economy, which will affect demand for Asian products and add to recessionary pressures,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors, which has $81 billion.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 3.5 percent to 84.98 as of 2:55 p.m. in Tokyo, paring a weekly gain to 6.9 percent.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 4.3 percent. The measure dropped 2.9 percent yesterday on concern talks to rescue GM and Chrysler would fail and as initial jobless claims soared to a 26-year high.
“It’s over with,” Majority Leader Harry Reid said on the Senate floor in Washington. “I dread looking at Wall Street tomorrow. It’s not going to be a pleasant sight.”
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average retreated 5.2 percent to 8,269.11. The CSI 300 Index sank 3.3 percent in China, after a government official said growth will slow more sharply next quarter and as retail sales grew at the slowest pace in nine months. China Mobile Ltd. fell 7.1 percent in Hong Kong.
Annual Slump
South Korea’s Kospi Index lost 4 percent, led by KB Financial Group Inc., after the Bank of Korea said the economy will expand at the slowest pace in 11 years in 2009.
The MSCI World Index has dropped 44 percent this year, on course for its worst annual retreat on record as writedowns and credit losses neared $1 trillion amid the worsening financial crisis. Declines this year have wiped out almost $30 trillion from global stock market values, taking the MSCI Asian index’s valuation to 12.5 times estimated profit, about a third lower than at the start of 2008.
Honda, Japan’s second-largest automaker, tumbled 13 percent to 1,908 yen. Nissan, the third biggest, plunged 11 percent to 310 yen. Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s No. 1 automaker, dropped 6.2 percent to 43,450 won.
Connecticut Democrat Christopher Dodd, who was involved in the talks, said earlier talks faltered on a Republican demand that unionized autoworkers accept a reduction in wages next year, rather than later, to match those of U.S. autoworkers who work for foreign-owned companies.
‘Iconic Industry’
“More than saddened, I’m worried this evening about what we’re doing with an iconic industry,” Dodd said. “In the midst of deeply troubling economic times we are going to add to that substantially.”
Denso plunged 11 percent to 1,444 yen. Aisin Seiki Co., Japan’s largest maker of car transmissions, sank 12 percent to 1,131 yen.
“The potential bankruptcy of U.S. automakers has huge ramifications for the many companies that depend on them, from steelmakers, tiremakers to the car dealers,” said Daphne Roth, the Singapore-based head of equity research at ABN Amro Private Bank, which manages about $27 billion of Asian assets.
The failure of the talks sent the dollar to 89.89 yen, the lowest since August 1995. The Markit iTraxx Japan index of credit-default swaps rose 11.5 basis points to 332.5 at 10:27 a.m. in Tokyo, according to prices from BNP Paribas SA.
‘Domino Impact’
Platinum, used to make catalytic converters for car and truck exhaust systems, fell as much as 3.4 percent in Asia, leading metal prices lower. Crude oil dropped as much as 5.9 percent, eroding yesterday’s 10 percent rally.
The yield on the 10-year note fell 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 2.50 percent as of 2:05 p.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 3.75 percent security due in November 2018 rose 1 point, or $10 per $1,000 face amount, to 110 30/32.
The yield reached 2.489 percent, the lowest level since 1954, according to monthly records by Federal Reserve. Two-year rates dropped 10 basis points to 0.69 percent, the least since regular sales began in 1975.
“This is seriously bad news,” said Victor Shum, senior principal at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. “If the automakers go bankrupt then they’ll be a whole domino impact of potential job losses. If the recession is deepened then surely it will impact demand.”
U.S. Unemployment
Signs of slowing expansion in the U.S. also weighed on the region’s stocks. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits surged to 573,000 last week, the Labor Department said. That’s the highest level since November 1982.
James Hardie, which gets more than three-quarters of its sales from the U.S., fell 9.6 percent to A$3.78, on track for its largest drop since Nov. 19. Canon Inc., the world’s biggest digital-camera maker, declined 6 percent to 2,585 yen.
Li & Fung Ltd., a supplier of toys and clothing to retailers, plunged 14 percent to HK$14.56 in Hong Kong after KB Toys Inc. filed for bankruptcy in the U.S. KB Toys, an 86-year-old toy retailer, said it owes the company $27.2 million.
China Mobile, the world’s No. 1 phone company by value, lost 7.1 percent to HK$76.50. China Shipping Development Co., the nation’s largest oil carrier, fell 16 percent to HK$7.37, the biggest loss on MSCI’s Asian index.
Slowing Growth
China’s growth will slow more sharply in the first quarter of 2009 before stabilizing and then recovering, Liu He, vice minister of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs said in Beijing today. Retail sales rose 20.8 percent in November, the slowest pace in nine months, the National Bureau of Statistics also said today.
Wuliangye Yibin Co., China’s biggest spirits maker, fell 3.6 percent to 15.14 yuan. Concern that China’s economic growth will slow spurred the government to pledge on Nov. 4 to implement a 4- trillion yuan ($583 billion) economic stimulus package and the benchmark lending rate was cut by the most in 11 years.
MSCI’s Asian index has rallied 13 percent since reaching a five-year low on Nov. 20 as governments from Australia to South Korea took steps to protect their economies from the financial crisis.
South Korea yesterday slashed interest rates to a record low to shore up its economy. The nation’s central bank said today economy will grow 2 percent next year from an estimated 3.7 percent this year. KB Financial plunged 13 percent to 32,050 won.

10:33 am - KLCI open with little interest from the professionals .


Tuesday, December 9, 2008

5:55 pm - KLCI closed low - a bearish pattern - upthrust


2:26 pm - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine

Dear Traders,

This report is for those who invested in Man Funds or might be considering to add to your positions.

There has been extreme volatility in world currency markets as panic stricken investors world wide have liquidated shares, commodities, property, mortgage and corporate bonds. Volatility and price drops such as these have not been seen since the world depression of 1929- 1931.

In this atmosphere of fear and uncertainty investors have stampeding into the ultimate safe haven- US Treasury bonds. 3 month US bill rates have dropped to 0.01 percent.The 10 year bond is at 2.5 % while the 30 year bond is at 3.005 %. These are 1930 depression levels for these instruments. Large funds are buying treasuries to ride out the storm. This is creating a bubble much like the internet bubble and the recent crude oil bubble.

Chart of the US 30 year bond tells the story. As price goes higher and higher volume gets lesser and lesser which is a signal that demand is dropping. There are fewer buyers at the top as smart money is selling to the herd of sheep who are caught up in the buying panic. All bubbles end like this.

Smart money is beginning to reason, why should I be satisfied with a 1 % return in the US Dollar as the US government bailouts of banks/ auto companies which guarantee a debasing of the US Dollar currency. Lower volume on the above chart shows smart money is beginning to withdrawOnce Obama takes power he will bailout the housing industry and Joe Public, with massive stimulus packages adding more liquidity to the system. The US Dollar on purchasing power parity is no longer cheap. The AUD is 10 % undervalued based on this PPP benchmark. Moreover US Productivity has dropped to 0 % as the recession deepens

Once the Treasury bubble pops expect the Euro/ Australian Dollar/ to gain and this will benefit us who hold Man AHL and other AUD Man Funds.. Also expect the KLSE and other world markets to gain from an inflow of funds by those who are selling their US Bonds once the panic ends.

The actual Man funds have done well this year unlike the majority of hedge funds.. Please read the attached report detailing Man performance. Man being a trend following fund profits with volatility and be sure 2009 will be a volatile year.

The AHL pure commodity/futures non guaranteed fund is open ended and you can join anytime . This could be a good investment for 2009 no matter what happens in the stock market. Let me or Martin know if you have any questions on this or if you wish to invest.

Best regards
Bill

2:16 pm - KLCI is up for the day !


Sunday, December 7, 2008

5 pm - Chart of the Week - Ranhill


Buy on Tues if it take out the high rm0.71 and put your stop @ rm0.56

Friday, December 5, 2008

5:26 pm - Bursa Malaysia stock market is closed on Monday - Dec 8, 2008 for holiday !

Kindly take note !

5:24 pm - KLCI closed lower !


It looks like it is going to test lower next week ahead on the weekend.

9:56 am - I will back in office in Bursa Malaysia and on-line with the futures market.

I am currently located at Bursa Malaysia LG level and I will be stationed there for the time being.

You can call my handphone to place order at Martin 012 207 8633.

Rgds, -martin-

Thursday, December 4, 2008

9:34 pm - CIMB Commerce Square off limits to employee due to landslide occuring due to heavy rain downpour.

Dear Valued clients,

I will not be stationed at my office in CIMB Commerce Square Jalan Semantan due to the landslide occurring next to the office building.

I think the building is deemed unsafe.

I will be operating out from a disaster recovering site in Kompakar, Jalan Bersatu, PJ.

You can still call me to trade from my mobile phone 012 207 8633 or you can call Chong at 016 662 0881.

Will update and keep you posted tomorrow.

Rgds,
-martin-

2:58 pm - KLCI is also taking a cue to break down !


9:14 am - Another sideway day for KLCI ???


Wednesday, December 3, 2008