Next Master the Markets Foundation Course 1.5 days - Sept 14-15, 2009. Call Dolly 03 4252 4149 to register ! Bursa Malaysia (KLSE) :-) martin_tf_wong@hotmail.com: 10:26 am - Market Outlook from Bill Wermine.

Monday, July 28, 2008

10:26 am - Market Outlook from Bill Wermine.

Dear Traders,

This Saturday, I attended a market outlook by Lee Cheng Hooi who is now Technical research director at Maybank Aseam Bankers. He showed a wide section of quality shares which are showing the double hump camel pattern.

The double hump shows that selling pressure is drying up. It can seen in the MACD oscillator and confirmed by price and volume.

Daily chart of Maybank


A major insider buying signal occured on 5 June 2008 as EPF, PNB and overseas funds had been buying under the cover of bad news. extreme fear, pessimism and gloom over the last month. The Edge newspaper lists insider buying and selling and is a valuable insight into the psychology of professionals who buy under the cover
of fear and panic.

On 4 July price hit the low of 6.80 on a test of support. This test was to draw out more selling. It failed as price rose to as high as 7.60. Although price fell to 6.80 , the MACD diverged and formed a higher high. This is the double hump camel pattern.

If only one share has this pattern, I would ignore it but if a wide cross section of shares has this pattern it could mean a support is building and could launch a pre budget rally up to at least 1280. Lee showed many quality shares that now exhibit this pattern.

I will use this opportunity of a pre budget rally to off load some shares I am holding in my managed accounts. Based on my technical research, inflation trends and Hang Seng probabilty favors a continueing world bear market. The Hang Seng is an excellent proxy for world stock makets as it a bridge between China, the US, Europe and Asian countries. China is taking over as the engine of world growth,

For this reason, I am changing my managed account focus from investment holding and dividend capture to a trading approach.

Man Eclipse Fund closing date has been extended by 1 week. 8 August is the last date to subscribe to this fund. I will be in my office most of next week should you wish to add to your investment or open an account. Once the fund closes, you may have to wait a few months for the next launch.

Have a good week
Bill

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