Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
9:38 am - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine !
Dear Traders,
Wall St erupted into a hightened state of euphoria last week, as the treasury unveiled the so called Public Private Investment Program (PPIP) a clever scheme to bankroll private investment firms and guarantee them huge profits, in return for participating in an illiquid market and buying from Wall St bankers at vastly inflated prices home loans which are in default.
All the major stock indexes soared except the KLSE as Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner laid out details of the PPIP a plan to allow US banks unload 500 billion USD of bad debts that amount to an unprecedented looting of taxpayers funds to benefit the financial elite.
The FED will act as the bad bank and leverage USD 100 billion from TARP by 6 times effectively lending 600 billion to private investment firms in the form of low interest non recourse loans. If the transactions lose money the taxpayer pays. If the transactions win the firms that put up the money will make huge profits.
Even though the bulk of the capital comes from the government, the private investment funds will set up the scheme and will receive lucrative fees and evenly divide up the booty.
This is theft on the grand scale and there is nothing the public can do about it. The politicians and banking elite control the game. In fact it is a rigged game. At some point the music will stop, the party will end and the piper must be paid.
Creating vast amounts of money out of thin air is like a shaky company managed for the benefit of insiders who issues more shares thus diluting the value of existing shareholders.
The masters of the universe on Wall St such as Goldman Sachs , the Federal Reseve, the US treasury are depreciating the US dollar in the same way- commen sense dictates that when more currency is chasing the same goods inflation will roar ahead.
In the short term this will create trading opportunities so be sure to manage your risks and that goes for local shares as well.
Focus on high quality dividend payers. Market should consolidate next week but hopefully the new PM will be KLSE positive as the uncertainty is now removed
What is the answer to the uncertainty, money printing, manipulation ? In a word gold.
On 25 April we will have our traders club at CIMB auditorium at 10 to 12 AM. Nigel Foo may give an outlook on local market and global indices.
In the afternoon of the 25th from 2 30 PM to 5 30, we plan a gold conference with some very valuable wealth protection info.
Futures Broker Martin will share a powerful gold trading system to time the gold futures market. We plan on having a fund manager from Deutsch Bank to present the outlook for gold mining shares and the benefits of placing some of your assets in a gold mining share unit trust.
We also plan on having a gold shop owner talk about the physical supply and demand picture of gold in Malaysia
Phillip Futures of Malaysia will share how to trade gold futures as they are licensed to do so. As we are holding this in a major hotel there will be a small cover charge for the gold conference.
Please let me know if you wish to attend the gold conference so we can plan.
Have a productive week ahead
Bill
Wall St erupted into a hightened state of euphoria last week, as the treasury unveiled the so called Public Private Investment Program (PPIP) a clever scheme to bankroll private investment firms and guarantee them huge profits, in return for participating in an illiquid market and buying from Wall St bankers at vastly inflated prices home loans which are in default.
All the major stock indexes soared except the KLSE as Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner laid out details of the PPIP a plan to allow US banks unload 500 billion USD of bad debts that amount to an unprecedented looting of taxpayers funds to benefit the financial elite.
The FED will act as the bad bank and leverage USD 100 billion from TARP by 6 times effectively lending 600 billion to private investment firms in the form of low interest non recourse loans. If the transactions lose money the taxpayer pays. If the transactions win the firms that put up the money will make huge profits.
Even though the bulk of the capital comes from the government, the private investment funds will set up the scheme and will receive lucrative fees and evenly divide up the booty.
This is theft on the grand scale and there is nothing the public can do about it. The politicians and banking elite control the game. In fact it is a rigged game. At some point the music will stop, the party will end and the piper must be paid.
Creating vast amounts of money out of thin air is like a shaky company managed for the benefit of insiders who issues more shares thus diluting the value of existing shareholders.
The masters of the universe on Wall St such as Goldman Sachs , the Federal Reseve, the US treasury are depreciating the US dollar in the same way- commen sense dictates that when more currency is chasing the same goods inflation will roar ahead.
In the short term this will create trading opportunities so be sure to manage your risks and that goes for local shares as well.
Focus on high quality dividend payers. Market should consolidate next week but hopefully the new PM will be KLSE positive as the uncertainty is now removed
What is the answer to the uncertainty, money printing, manipulation ? In a word gold.
On 25 April we will have our traders club at CIMB auditorium at 10 to 12 AM. Nigel Foo may give an outlook on local market and global indices.
In the afternoon of the 25th from 2 30 PM to 5 30, we plan a gold conference with some very valuable wealth protection info.
Futures Broker Martin will share a powerful gold trading system to time the gold futures market. We plan on having a fund manager from Deutsch Bank to present the outlook for gold mining shares and the benefits of placing some of your assets in a gold mining share unit trust.
We also plan on having a gold shop owner talk about the physical supply and demand picture of gold in Malaysia
Phillip Futures of Malaysia will share how to trade gold futures as they are licensed to do so. As we are holding this in a major hotel there will be a small cover charge for the gold conference.
Please let me know if you wish to attend the gold conference so we can plan.
Have a productive week ahead
Bill
9:03 am - KLCI is set for another sideway movement !
UMNO assembly is over ! Market bound to retrace lower !
Friday, March 27, 2009
9:54 pm - Chart of the Week - WCT Engin'g
Buy if it take out the high rm1.17 and put your stop at rm1.02
Thursday, March 26, 2009
10:23 am - IJM has broken out since Monday.
It appear on my filter but I did not pick it up. Instead I pick AMMB. Here is IJM today ! Look to buy on dip.
Here is my Monday chart on Mar 23
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Monday, March 23, 2009
4:03 pm - KLCI is ready to test 880 level
I expect the local fund mgrs to be ready to buy into KLCI making more up days in coming weeks. Elliot wave expects is expecting this as the "b" wave to go up to 1000 level.
9:15 am - Market Report by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
The consensus of most traders and investors continues to be overwealmingly bearish and pessimistic. We held a CPE course for a group of fund managers and remeisers at CIMB Saturday.
Only one out of 50 raised their hand when I asked how many were bullish.
In my opinion this is irrational pessimism the opposite of irrational optimism and is a sign of a near term bottom.
The irrational optimists were super bullish when the KLSE hit 1500. Now they are irrational bearish when the KLSE hit 800.
One of our graduates Tony Cheong who is a remeiser with Kenaga shared his trading record for February and showed that through disciplined application of price and volume trading it is possible to earn reasonable profits even in a bear market. His method is short term contra trading.
If you are looking for a remeiser who trades with a disciplined strategy and you do not have time to trade on line . It is worth paying a little extra for service that can save you from disaster. An on line platform will not remind you to manage risk.
I would recommend him. His email is : cth6328@hotmail.com .
The Man AUD Capital guaranteed fund closed on Friday and for those who invested or invested in previous Man AUD funds the outlook for the AUD has turned positive. The yield carry over the US Dollar is 3 % and Australia last week signed a free trade agreement with the ASIAN group. Total exports to this group are more than their exports to the US and Europe.
Australia has problems but the impression is that commentators who are dwelling on them have lost perspective that the problems of the US may be worse. The AUD looks relatively well placed.
Attached is a chart of the AUD showing a shakeout last week before a substantial rise. Insiders are heavily accumulating the AUD under cover of extreme bad news. Most CNBC talking heads are still bearish the AUD as they run cover for their insider friends that run the hedge funds.
You may still invest in the AUD Man Diversified Fund which invests in a basket of managed futures as this is an opened ended fund. This is a good hedge should stock markets underperform in 2009. Man is actively managed and profits in both upand down markets as opposed to stock unit trusts which only profit in upmarkets.
I am very wary of scenario trading- a fund which is long only is a scenario trade. It is based on the premise that stocks just like property only go up over the long term. Tell that to California home owners who have seen the value of their houses drop an average of 40 % or buy and holders of shares around the world have lost upwards of 50 % of their share investments.
In time buy and holders may recover their money but unfortunately we live in the now and have needs now that must be satisfied. Active management that allows trading trends in both sides of the market solves this problem. Unfortunately those with opinions and ego problems have a difficult time facing reality- and unfortunately they may pay the price. Bias in the news is always to buy share unit trusts as the unit trust companies support the newspapers with large ad revenue unlike Man who does not advertise
I suppose I am biased to the risk management trading approach but that is because my main focus for my clients is capital preservation during difficult times.
Have a good week
Bill
The consensus of most traders and investors continues to be overwealmingly bearish and pessimistic. We held a CPE course for a group of fund managers and remeisers at CIMB Saturday.
Only one out of 50 raised their hand when I asked how many were bullish.
In my opinion this is irrational pessimism the opposite of irrational optimism and is a sign of a near term bottom.
The irrational optimists were super bullish when the KLSE hit 1500. Now they are irrational bearish when the KLSE hit 800.
One of our graduates Tony Cheong who is a remeiser with Kenaga shared his trading record for February and showed that through disciplined application of price and volume trading it is possible to earn reasonable profits even in a bear market. His method is short term contra trading.
If you are looking for a remeiser who trades with a disciplined strategy and you do not have time to trade on line . It is worth paying a little extra for service that can save you from disaster. An on line platform will not remind you to manage risk.
I would recommend him. His email is : cth6328@hotmail.com .
The Man AUD Capital guaranteed fund closed on Friday and for those who invested or invested in previous Man AUD funds the outlook for the AUD has turned positive. The yield carry over the US Dollar is 3 % and Australia last week signed a free trade agreement with the ASIAN group. Total exports to this group are more than their exports to the US and Europe.
Australia has problems but the impression is that commentators who are dwelling on them have lost perspective that the problems of the US may be worse. The AUD looks relatively well placed.
Attached is a chart of the AUD showing a shakeout last week before a substantial rise. Insiders are heavily accumulating the AUD under cover of extreme bad news. Most CNBC talking heads are still bearish the AUD as they run cover for their insider friends that run the hedge funds.
You may still invest in the AUD Man Diversified Fund which invests in a basket of managed futures as this is an opened ended fund. This is a good hedge should stock markets underperform in 2009. Man is actively managed and profits in both upand down markets as opposed to stock unit trusts which only profit in upmarkets.
I am very wary of scenario trading- a fund which is long only is a scenario trade. It is based on the premise that stocks just like property only go up over the long term. Tell that to California home owners who have seen the value of their houses drop an average of 40 % or buy and holders of shares around the world have lost upwards of 50 % of their share investments.
In time buy and holders may recover their money but unfortunately we live in the now and have needs now that must be satisfied. Active management that allows trading trends in both sides of the market solves this problem. Unfortunately those with opinions and ego problems have a difficult time facing reality- and unfortunately they may pay the price. Bias in the news is always to buy share unit trusts as the unit trust companies support the newspapers with large ad revenue unlike Man who does not advertise
I suppose I am biased to the risk management trading approach but that is because my main focus for my clients is capital preservation during difficult times.
Have a good week
Bill
Sunday, March 22, 2009
10:31 am - Chart of the Week - AMMB Berhad
Buy if it take out rm2.51 on Monday. Put your stop at rm2.34.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
10:58 am - Martin's Talk Tomorrow Night !
Dear All,
You are invited to a free of charge 3 hours workshop on
"How to profit to this turbulent market by Trading Futures"
conducted by Mr Bill Wermine and Mr Martin Wong.
Date : 18 Mar 2009 Wednesday
Time : 7pm ~ 10 pm
Venue : CIMB Auditorium, Bangunan CIMB, Jln Semantan, Damansara Heights.
(Opposite Peninsular Hotel) Regards,
For map goto to www.imtradermy.com
Chong (016-6620881)
You are invited to a free of charge 3 hours workshop on
"How to profit to this turbulent market by Trading Futures"
conducted by Mr Bill Wermine and Mr Martin Wong.
Date : 18 Mar 2009 Wednesday
Time : 7pm ~ 10 pm
Venue : CIMB Auditorium, Bangunan CIMB, Jln Semantan, Damansara Heights.
(Opposite Peninsular Hotel) Regards,
For map goto to www.imtradermy.com
Chong (016-6620881)
Monday, March 16, 2009
9:57 am - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
First let me thank all of you who supported our event and talk at the Traders Expo this weekend.
I hope you found something that can benefit you at mine or one of the other speakers presentations.
Most of the speakers are honest in their dealings and motivated to upgrade your trading skills- those in this catagory are Daryl Guppy, Brent Penfold, Don Schellenberg, Bennie of NextView a few others and Phillip Futures/ Phillip Mutual and any of the SC licensed stockbrokers/ futures brokers who participated in the event. If you deal with any licensed brokers in Malaysia you have the protection of our very vigilant enforcement officers of the securities commission. If you deal with gray area brokers no one will protect you- you are on your own.
Let me warn you in dealing with any unlicensed in Malaysia dealers/ brokers or any who solicits deposits from you.
Before handing over any money check with the SC if there any investigations or complaints about them.
Here is a news report from the Singapore Straits Times about a prominent options seminar provider which was forwarded to me from one of our Traders Club members:
March 13, 2009Trading 'Expert' ordered to Refund FeesCourse trainees were upset that option trading instructor's doctorate came from an unaccredited universityA group of 49 people scored a legal victory over a self-styled expert on option trading who turned out to have a dodgy doctorate from an unaccredited American university.A dozen of the course participants said they had paid Mr Clemen Chiang (Freely Business School, Singapore) ) between $3,600 and $4,000 last year for a three-day course on option trading - a complex and risky investing technique which often amounts to betting on share-price trends.Several had also forked out another $960 for training software and a handful paid $1,600 to $12,000 more for online tutorials referred to as 'webinars'.Mr Chiang, a 34-year-old Nanyang Technological University engineering graduate, has been running these seminars for a few years at his Freely Business School in North Bridge Road.He would tell students his own success story of how he made millions, and he drew hundreds of participants.He claimed to have a PhD in option trading, a rarity in the finance industry here.But when it came to light last year that his doctorate was from the unaccredited Preston University in Alabama, the group of 49 wanted their money back.Yesterday, the Small Claims Tribunal found that Mr Chiang had misrepresented his qualifications. It awarded all participants a refund of close to 80 per cent of their fees for the seminar and a full refund for the cost of the software and 'webinars'.
The overwealming consensus among the over 500 who attended my talk on Saturday was bearish. When I asked the KLSE bulls to raise their hands only 3 or 4 put them up. When I asked those who were bearish- almost everyone.
Can the majority be right ? Markets don't work like that. The majority will pay the smart money who is in minority.
It may take a while but support is building in the KLSE from 830 to 850 with a near term target of 900. Stick with only the highest quality dividend shares for now and manage your risks. MAN OM IP Capital Guaranteed fund closes this Friday so give me a call if interested. Attached is an interview of Tim Wong, CEO of AHL check page 3 and 4.
I Am holding a Man Presentation to a few investors who expressed interest on Tuesday 17 March at my office at 2 30 PM so if interested please call or contact me.
Martin is holding a 2 hour futures trading presentation Wednesday evening at CIMB Auditorium at 7 00 PM to 10. If interested give Chong a call at 2095 3991. Should the KLSE consolidate or go down futures is an opportunity. I will speak on opportunities in gold as a hedge against inflation
After talking with famous Guru and CNBC analist Daryl Guppy at the ATIC he explained that China is doing very well and still buying commodities from Australia- he is from Australia but has an office in Bejing where he has business interests.
He likes gold, the Aussie Dollar and told me China has cut back their buying of US Treasury bonds which the US Government uses to fund the dead beats who are borrowed to the hilt and are defaulting on their house loans and credit cards and fund bankrupt banks, busted auto companies, mortgage companies like Fannie May and political chronies of Obama. This will hurt the US Dollar and may trigger massive inflation.
Why should the hard working and prudent, thrifty Chinese be asked to bail out the mistakes of the big spending zero savings Americans with their flatscreen TVs, SUVs, MacMansion houses etc
Your focus should be to protect your capital in these uncertain times especially from socialists like Obama who believe in wealth distribution from rich to the politically connected and the poor.
Bill
First let me thank all of you who supported our event and talk at the Traders Expo this weekend.
I hope you found something that can benefit you at mine or one of the other speakers presentations.
Most of the speakers are honest in their dealings and motivated to upgrade your trading skills- those in this catagory are Daryl Guppy, Brent Penfold, Don Schellenberg, Bennie of NextView a few others and Phillip Futures/ Phillip Mutual and any of the SC licensed stockbrokers/ futures brokers who participated in the event. If you deal with any licensed brokers in Malaysia you have the protection of our very vigilant enforcement officers of the securities commission. If you deal with gray area brokers no one will protect you- you are on your own.
Let me warn you in dealing with any unlicensed in Malaysia dealers/ brokers or any who solicits deposits from you.
Before handing over any money check with the SC if there any investigations or complaints about them.
Here is a news report from the Singapore Straits Times about a prominent options seminar provider which was forwarded to me from one of our Traders Club members:
March 13, 2009Trading 'Expert' ordered to Refund FeesCourse trainees were upset that option trading instructor's doctorate came from an unaccredited universityA group of 49 people scored a legal victory over a self-styled expert on option trading who turned out to have a dodgy doctorate from an unaccredited American university.A dozen of the course participants said they had paid Mr Clemen Chiang (Freely Business School, Singapore) ) between $3,600 and $4,000 last year for a three-day course on option trading - a complex and risky investing technique which often amounts to betting on share-price trends.Several had also forked out another $960 for training software and a handful paid $1,600 to $12,000 more for online tutorials referred to as 'webinars'.Mr Chiang, a 34-year-old Nanyang Technological University engineering graduate, has been running these seminars for a few years at his Freely Business School in North Bridge Road.He would tell students his own success story of how he made millions, and he drew hundreds of participants.He claimed to have a PhD in option trading, a rarity in the finance industry here.But when it came to light last year that his doctorate was from the unaccredited Preston University in Alabama, the group of 49 wanted their money back.Yesterday, the Small Claims Tribunal found that Mr Chiang had misrepresented his qualifications. It awarded all participants a refund of close to 80 per cent of their fees for the seminar and a full refund for the cost of the software and 'webinars'.
The overwealming consensus among the over 500 who attended my talk on Saturday was bearish. When I asked the KLSE bulls to raise their hands only 3 or 4 put them up. When I asked those who were bearish- almost everyone.
Can the majority be right ? Markets don't work like that. The majority will pay the smart money who is in minority.
It may take a while but support is building in the KLSE from 830 to 850 with a near term target of 900. Stick with only the highest quality dividend shares for now and manage your risks. MAN OM IP Capital Guaranteed fund closes this Friday so give me a call if interested. Attached is an interview of Tim Wong, CEO of AHL check page 3 and 4.
I Am holding a Man Presentation to a few investors who expressed interest on Tuesday 17 March at my office at 2 30 PM so if interested please call or contact me.
Martin is holding a 2 hour futures trading presentation Wednesday evening at CIMB Auditorium at 7 00 PM to 10. If interested give Chong a call at 2095 3991. Should the KLSE consolidate or go down futures is an opportunity. I will speak on opportunities in gold as a hedge against inflation
After talking with famous Guru and CNBC analist Daryl Guppy at the ATIC he explained that China is doing very well and still buying commodities from Australia- he is from Australia but has an office in Bejing where he has business interests.
He likes gold, the Aussie Dollar and told me China has cut back their buying of US Treasury bonds which the US Government uses to fund the dead beats who are borrowed to the hilt and are defaulting on their house loans and credit cards and fund bankrupt banks, busted auto companies, mortgage companies like Fannie May and political chronies of Obama. This will hurt the US Dollar and may trigger massive inflation.
Why should the hard working and prudent, thrifty Chinese be asked to bail out the mistakes of the big spending zero savings Americans with their flatscreen TVs, SUVs, MacMansion houses etc
Your focus should be to protect your capital in these uncertain times especially from socialists like Obama who believe in wealth distribution from rich to the politically connected and the poor.
Bill
Sunday, March 15, 2009
9:49 pm - Watch out for this counter - Minply - Highly manipulative !
You have to have a strong heart to pounce on this one ! Buy if above rm0.33. Put your stop at rm0.28. Get out if you are not in the money by end of Monday Mar 15!Friday, March 13, 2009
4:49 pm - See you at the ATIC March 14,15.
Look for me and Bill at the William Wermine Booth in ATIC 09 at KLCC convention center.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
11:02 am - Too late for stimulus package !
By David Chance and Razak Ahmad
KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 (Reuters) - Malaysia's huge budget
spend may be one of the biggest in the world relative to the size
of the economy but the political woes of the country's incoming
premier may have limited its effectiveness.
Of the 60 billion ringgit ($16.3 billion) figure announced by
Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak on Tuesday, just 17-18 billion
ringgit is new federal funding and that is spread over two years.
(For a full story click on [ID:nKLR411807])
While that will ease concerns of a massive slew of bond
issues to finance the deficit, it does not guarantee a quick
boost to a country which is the third most dependent in Asia on
exports relative to gross domestic product (GDP).
The budget, which political and economic analysts say is
short on details and transparency, may also do lasting damage to
Najib who is due to take power at the end of March.
"He's got a lot of political issues which have preoccupied
him and there's been an inadequate amount of attention on the
severity of the economic crisis," said Terence Gomez, professor
at the University of Malaya economics and administration faculty.
Malaysian exports plunged 28 percent in January, leaving the
country of 27 million people teetering on the edge of its worst
economic performance since the Asian crisis a decade ago.
While the economy was tanking, critics charge that Najib
spent too much time politicking ahead of March polls in the
United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the main party in the
National Front coalition that has ruled Malaysia for 51 years.
[ID:nKLR115534]
In February, Najib was busy plotting a putsch to take control
of the northwestern state of Perak from the opposition, a move
that would have seen him emerge as a winner for a government that
is still reeling from big election losses a year ago.
That move misfired when the opposition People's Alliance
dissolved the state assembly and the state is now in limbo.
Recently, more lurid details have emerged in Malaysia's
online media of the killing of a Mongolian model. Najib has
repeatedly denied involvement and there is no direct evidence
linking him to it, but the issue has damaged his credibility.
And on April 7, Najib will face a crucial electoral test with
a parliamentary by-election and three state seat by-elections.
"Publicly, his image has taken a major battering after what
happened in Perak, first of all, and subsequently the further
disclosures on the killing of the Mongolian lady, so he's really
going out on a limb here trying to redeem himself," said Gomez.
MUTED MARKET RESPONSE
Although the spending measures planned by countries in
response to the global economic slowdown are not directly
comparable and cover different time periods, Malaysia's equals
nine percent of GDP, second to China's announced 12 percent.
While government-backed newspapers in Malaysia hailed the
package, with the New Straits Times splashing "Transfusion!"
across its front page, market enthusiasm was limited.
Malaysia's main index <.KLSE> fell 0.6 percent on Wednesday,
compared with a 1.3 percent gain in neighbouring Singapore.
While other governments have put money into the pockets of
the consumer, there was no such cheer in Malaysia.
"As the much hoped-for tax cuts failed to materialise, the
direct relief for the man on the street seems limited," Chris
Eng, head of research at Malaysian investment bank OSK wrote in a
report published on Wednesday.
Bond markets, spared a slew of new issuance, also failed to
rally with yields on the benchmark 10-year issue
stuck near Tuesday's closing levels at 4.2 percent.
"We think the package will probably cushion, but cannot
prevent a recession. The worst case scenario for the fiscal
deficit has been averted for now, but further slippage remains a
risk," Citibank economist Wei Zheng Kit said in a report.
Kit estimates there will be bond issues of 92 billion ringgit
on a gross basis this year to finance the budget deficit which
the government now forecasts will be 7.6 percent of GDP.
Having failed to reassure markets, Najib also faced more
political pressure from the opposition on Wednesday.
"As far as the package is concerned, it is business as usual,
no commitment to reforms or strengthening institutional
governance," opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, a former finance
minister and deputy prime minister, told a news conference.
($1 = 3.690 Malaysian Ringgit)
(Editing by Sugita Katyal)
((david.chance@thomsonreuters.com; +603 2333 8033; Reuters
messaging david.chance.reuters.com@reuters.net; bureau email
areuters@gmail.com))
Keywords: MALAYSIA BUDGET/
KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 (Reuters) - Malaysia's huge budget
spend may be one of the biggest in the world relative to the size
of the economy but the political woes of the country's incoming
premier may have limited its effectiveness.
Of the 60 billion ringgit ($16.3 billion) figure announced by
Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak on Tuesday, just 17-18 billion
ringgit is new federal funding and that is spread over two years.
(For a full story click on [ID:nKLR411807])
While that will ease concerns of a massive slew of bond
issues to finance the deficit, it does not guarantee a quick
boost to a country which is the third most dependent in Asia on
exports relative to gross domestic product (GDP).
The budget, which political and economic analysts say is
short on details and transparency, may also do lasting damage to
Najib who is due to take power at the end of March.
"He's got a lot of political issues which have preoccupied
him and there's been an inadequate amount of attention on the
severity of the economic crisis," said Terence Gomez, professor
at the University of Malaya economics and administration faculty.
Malaysian exports plunged 28 percent in January, leaving the
country of 27 million people teetering on the edge of its worst
economic performance since the Asian crisis a decade ago.
While the economy was tanking, critics charge that Najib
spent too much time politicking ahead of March polls in the
United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the main party in the
National Front coalition that has ruled Malaysia for 51 years.
[ID:nKLR115534]
In February, Najib was busy plotting a putsch to take control
of the northwestern state of Perak from the opposition, a move
that would have seen him emerge as a winner for a government that
is still reeling from big election losses a year ago.
That move misfired when the opposition People's Alliance
dissolved the state assembly and the state is now in limbo.
Recently, more lurid details have emerged in Malaysia's
online media of the killing of a Mongolian model. Najib has
repeatedly denied involvement and there is no direct evidence
linking him to it, but the issue has damaged his credibility.
And on April 7, Najib will face a crucial electoral test with
a parliamentary by-election and three state seat by-elections.
"Publicly, his image has taken a major battering after what
happened in Perak, first of all, and subsequently the further
disclosures on the killing of the Mongolian lady, so he's really
going out on a limb here trying to redeem himself," said Gomez.
MUTED MARKET RESPONSE
Although the spending measures planned by countries in
response to the global economic slowdown are not directly
comparable and cover different time periods, Malaysia's equals
nine percent of GDP, second to China's announced 12 percent.
While government-backed newspapers in Malaysia hailed the
package, with the New Straits Times splashing "Transfusion!"
across its front page, market enthusiasm was limited.
Malaysia's main index <.KLSE> fell 0.6 percent on Wednesday,
compared with a 1.3 percent gain in neighbouring Singapore.
While other governments have put money into the pockets of
the consumer, there was no such cheer in Malaysia.
"As the much hoped-for tax cuts failed to materialise, the
direct relief for the man on the street seems limited," Chris
Eng, head of research at Malaysian investment bank OSK wrote in a
report published on Wednesday.
Bond markets, spared a slew of new issuance, also failed to
rally with yields on the benchmark 10-year issue
stuck near Tuesday's closing levels at 4.2 percent.
"We think the package will probably cushion, but cannot
prevent a recession. The worst case scenario for the fiscal
deficit has been averted for now, but further slippage remains a
risk," Citibank economist Wei Zheng Kit said in a report.
Kit estimates there will be bond issues of 92 billion ringgit
on a gross basis this year to finance the budget deficit which
the government now forecasts will be 7.6 percent of GDP.
Having failed to reassure markets, Najib also faced more
political pressure from the opposition on Wednesday.
"As far as the package is concerned, it is business as usual,
no commitment to reforms or strengthening institutional
governance," opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, a former finance
minister and deputy prime minister, told a news conference.
($1 = 3.690 Malaysian Ringgit)
(Editing by Sugita Katyal)
((david.chance@thomsonreuters.com; +603 2333 8033; Reuters
messaging david.chance.reuters.com@reuters.net; bureau email
areuters@gmail.com))
Keywords: MALAYSIA BUDGET/
10:37 pm - PBB continues to break lower !
If you have it, you shud have clear it early. Else you better hold and get rid of some.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
10:06 am - PBB is forming a double bottom - an opportunity to buy some PBB
Wait for the base to form first !
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
5:27 pm - Najib unveils RM60 bil stimulus package
Najib unveils RM60 bil stimulus package
Mar 10, 09 12:57pm
The government has unveiled a RM60 billion stimulus package today as it attempts to arrest the export-driven economy's slide into recession.
MCPX
The RM60 billion package will be implemented over a two-year period from 2009 to 2010.
Deputy premier Najib Razak, who is due to take over as prime minister at the end of this month, announced the details of the spending plan when tabling the Supplementary Supply Bill 2009, or mini budget, in Parliament. The package, which is equivalent to 9 percent of last year’s GDP, is broken down as follows:
RM15 billion in fiscal injection
RM25 billion in guarantee funds
RM10 billion in equity investment
RM7 billion for private finance initiative and off-budget projects
RM 3 billion in tax initiatives
“The implementation of such a large stimulus package is unprecedented in the nation’s economic history,” said Najib.
He warned that the economic growth for this year could go into negative territory of -1 percent.
Najib, who is also finance minister, had unveiled a RM7 billion stimulus package last year but acknowledged that the government needs a larger and more comprehensive mini-budget to avert the threat of a recession.
He said that the new stimlus measures will be focused on helping companies and workers affected by the global slowdown, to halt a steady stream of layoffs in recent months.
Malaysia's economic growth slowed to just 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, hit by declining exports and manufacturing as demand from its trading partners in the United States and Europe evaporated.
Spending plan a major test for Najib
January exports plunged 27.8 percent year-on-year, hitting their lowest level since 2001.
Prices of commodities such as crude oil, palm oil and rubber, have also plunged.
The government has already acknowledged it may have to abandon its 3.5 percent growth forecast for 2009.
An influential think tank, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER), said the economy is likely to sink into a technical recession in the first half of 2009 before making a recovery in the second half.
"The situation looks very grim and this package can probably help cushion the impact of the global downturn but cannot neutralise it," said MIER chief Mohamed Ariff Abdul Kareem.
The spending plan is a major test for Najib, who is taking on the top job one year after general elections that saw the ruling coalition battered by a resurgent opposition.
Within days of taking office he faces a series of by-elections which will be seen as a barometer of his popularity, and the coalition's ability to claw back support after the electoral drubbing.
Mar 10, 09 12:57pm
The government has unveiled a RM60 billion stimulus package today as it attempts to arrest the export-driven economy's slide into recession.
MCPX
The RM60 billion package will be implemented over a two-year period from 2009 to 2010.
Deputy premier Najib Razak, who is due to take over as prime minister at the end of this month, announced the details of the spending plan when tabling the Supplementary Supply Bill 2009, or mini budget, in Parliament. The package, which is equivalent to 9 percent of last year’s GDP, is broken down as follows:
RM15 billion in fiscal injection
RM25 billion in guarantee funds
RM10 billion in equity investment
RM7 billion for private finance initiative and off-budget projects
RM 3 billion in tax initiatives
“The implementation of such a large stimulus package is unprecedented in the nation’s economic history,” said Najib.
He warned that the economic growth for this year could go into negative territory of -1 percent.
Najib, who is also finance minister, had unveiled a RM7 billion stimulus package last year but acknowledged that the government needs a larger and more comprehensive mini-budget to avert the threat of a recession.
He said that the new stimlus measures will be focused on helping companies and workers affected by the global slowdown, to halt a steady stream of layoffs in recent months.
Malaysia's economic growth slowed to just 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, hit by declining exports and manufacturing as demand from its trading partners in the United States and Europe evaporated.
Spending plan a major test for Najib
January exports plunged 27.8 percent year-on-year, hitting their lowest level since 2001.
Prices of commodities such as crude oil, palm oil and rubber, have also plunged.
The government has already acknowledged it may have to abandon its 3.5 percent growth forecast for 2009.
An influential think tank, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER), said the economy is likely to sink into a technical recession in the first half of 2009 before making a recovery in the second half.
"The situation looks very grim and this package can probably help cushion the impact of the global downturn but cannot neutralise it," said MIER chief Mohamed Ariff Abdul Kareem.
The spending plan is a major test for Najib, who is taking on the top job one year after general elections that saw the ruling coalition battered by a resurgent opposition.
Within days of taking office he faces a series of by-elections which will be seen as a barometer of his popularity, and the coalition's ability to claw back support after the electoral drubbing.
12:11 noon - Expect a sideway market with a bias for upside !
Notice the falling volume. Expect a reversal soon !
Sunday, March 8, 2009
7:58 pm - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
Next Saturday and Sunday, 14 15 March , Martin and I will be at the ATIC Investors conference at the KL Convention Center. I will be speaking on Support and Resistance Simplified at 9 AM on Saturday. Martin will be at our table to showcase his new CD - Point and Figure Simplified as well as our CD Support and Resistance Simplified which is a video shoot of the presentation I will deliver. Price for these CDs is very reasonable.
If you would like a free ticket to the ATIC click on the banner at the bottom of my home page- www.Tradethetruth.com
There will be many speakers including trader Darul Guppy who is very straightforward, simple and the real deal. I urge you to come and listen to him as well as the other speakers. There is bound to be something that can improve your trading results.
Expect more range trading next week in the KLSE but stability due to strength in CPO.
Until the banking crises in the US is resolved which is having spill over effects in all the world markets, don't expect much movement in the KLSE.
Since Obama took power the Dow Jones has collapsed over 20 % and unemployment has jumped to 25 year highs. General Motors has fallen to a 75 year low. It seems the market is a good judge of Obama's character. Remember price and volume never lie and the truth is that Obama has failed miserably.
When I started in this business in 1974 , my mentor told me that GM was a bellweather for the US Stock market. This is because of exposure to steel, rails, high tech, copper, rubber and a host of other vital industries including defense. Now the Dow is about to lose a company which is a reflection of the economic health of the US economy. Thousands more workers will lose their jobs.
Obama is not taking the decisive steps to save the sinking ship. He still panders to special interests, chronies, union bosses,
and the powerful political elite. He promised to shut down the Iraq war but he does so gradually and reluctantly while sending thousands of more troops to Afganistan to fight in a quagmire. The Afgans have never been defeated- the British, Russians tried and failed- Do you think the Americans can do any better ?
The winners are the same political interests and favored defense contractors who benefited from the Bush administration.These special inrests will support Obama in the next election with handsome campeign contributions. Business as usual.
What can we do ? We can not fight city hall. Learn to short sell/ trade KLSE futures/ trade currencies/ commodities such as CPO and profit from the man made credit disaster created by the Wall St con artists. Upgrade your trading knowledge
If you wish to invest, Man AHL is the only investment I recommend at this moment as it profits the most when the world economy is at its worst.I invite you to check its performance- one of the few funds that made money in 2008. Call me or Martin if you want to invest. http://www.maninvestments.com.au/ahldiversifiedaud/index.cfm?r_id=CANOPUS&CFTOKEN=57794096
Have a good week ahead,
Bill
Next Saturday and Sunday, 14 15 March , Martin and I will be at the ATIC Investors conference at the KL Convention Center. I will be speaking on Support and Resistance Simplified at 9 AM on Saturday. Martin will be at our table to showcase his new CD - Point and Figure Simplified as well as our CD Support and Resistance Simplified which is a video shoot of the presentation I will deliver. Price for these CDs is very reasonable.
If you would like a free ticket to the ATIC click on the banner at the bottom of my home page- www.Tradethetruth.com
There will be many speakers including trader Darul Guppy who is very straightforward, simple and the real deal. I urge you to come and listen to him as well as the other speakers. There is bound to be something that can improve your trading results.
Expect more range trading next week in the KLSE but stability due to strength in CPO.
Until the banking crises in the US is resolved which is having spill over effects in all the world markets, don't expect much movement in the KLSE.
Since Obama took power the Dow Jones has collapsed over 20 % and unemployment has jumped to 25 year highs. General Motors has fallen to a 75 year low. It seems the market is a good judge of Obama's character. Remember price and volume never lie and the truth is that Obama has failed miserably.
When I started in this business in 1974 , my mentor told me that GM was a bellweather for the US Stock market. This is because of exposure to steel, rails, high tech, copper, rubber and a host of other vital industries including defense. Now the Dow is about to lose a company which is a reflection of the economic health of the US economy. Thousands more workers will lose their jobs.
Obama is not taking the decisive steps to save the sinking ship. He still panders to special interests, chronies, union bosses,
and the powerful political elite. He promised to shut down the Iraq war but he does so gradually and reluctantly while sending thousands of more troops to Afganistan to fight in a quagmire. The Afgans have never been defeated- the British, Russians tried and failed- Do you think the Americans can do any better ?
The winners are the same political interests and favored defense contractors who benefited from the Bush administration.These special inrests will support Obama in the next election with handsome campeign contributions. Business as usual.
What can we do ? We can not fight city hall. Learn to short sell/ trade KLSE futures/ trade currencies/ commodities such as CPO and profit from the man made credit disaster created by the Wall St con artists. Upgrade your trading knowledge
If you wish to invest, Man AHL is the only investment I recommend at this moment as it profits the most when the world economy is at its worst.I invite you to check its performance- one of the few funds that made money in 2008. Call me or Martin if you want to invest. http://www.maninvestments.com.au/ahldiversifiedaud/index.cfm?r_id=CANOPUS&CFTOKEN=57794096
Have a good week ahead,
Bill
Saturday, March 7, 2009
8:49 am - Chart of the Week - Suncity
Buy if it take out the high rm1.56 and above. Put your stop at support rm1.41-rm1.40
Friday, March 6, 2009
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Monday, March 2, 2009
9:37 am - Market Report by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
Don't forget: If you are free this talk given by Sam Gibson Executive of Man Group and Ang Kok Heng, CIO of Phillip will explain a way to profit/protect your assets in the unfolding world wide depression. Please let me know if you wish to attend as seats are limited and we expect a full house. Refreshments will be served and the talk is FOC.
Man Alternative Investment talk
Date : 3 March 2009 (Tuesday)
Time : 7.00pm - 9.45pm
Venue : Westside Room 1, 2 & 3, Level 8,
Boulevard Hotel, Mid Valley City,
Lingkaran Syed Putra,
59200 Kuala Lumpur
Despite deep recession and potential depression in Singapore, the US, Europe, UK, Russia, Korea and Japan there are some bright spots.
Vietnam is booming as related to me from a businessman friend of mine who just returned from Hanoi . Cambodia is also doing well with an influx of Korean and Japanese multinationals. The China stockmarkets have also bottomed out after falling over 70 % . Malaysia has also held up rather well. In Malaysia there are many jobs for those willing to work and opportunities for business.
While in Singapore last week, my driver was a qualified accountant. Airport attendants were local Singaporeans in their 50s and 60s who consider themselves lucky to have a job. At least Singaporeans are willing to take a humble but honorable job when times are hard.
I have been asked this question many times: Will Obama's plan work ? In a word no, it will fail. Perhaps there will be some short term gain but the foundation of his plan: Tax and Spend our way to prosperity is a plan which is like building a sand castle next to the Pacific ocean. One big wave will destroy the castle..
The only countries which are surviving the on going financial crises are countries such as Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Malaysia which have low taxes, high savings rates, and very low levels of welfare, unemployment compensation.
Singapore will survive because of high savings rates, low taxes and no welfare. This is the Singapore policy: If you do not work, you do not have the right to eat. This in my opinion is a good incentive to find work no matter how humble is the job.
Obama has sold the American public a pipe dream. But this dream will evaporate like a puff of smoke. He feels he can rob Peter to pay Paul. Unfortunately Paul, the businessman is the man who creates wealth through his entrepreneurial spirit and capital.
Paul saved his money and that is the capital which can save America. Obama through his proposed higher taxes on capital gains, dividends and increased taxes on high net worth investors/ business will cofiscate this capital which can be used to bail out those who have a welfare mentality, bought homes they could not afford, have no savings and max out their credit cards
These are voters and Obama's main goal is to keep power at all costs- No wonder he is always smiling. His smile is like the smile of my Labrador dog just before he pounces on and eats a rat. My dog is a specialist in catching,killing and eating rats
Obama will also transfer this wealth to politicians, chronies, and special interest groups who have no incentive to create wealth but owe him loyalty.
There are ony 2 ways to make money : work for it or steal it. Obama's plan is to steal it but in my opinion that will end up badly
Many of you including myself are holding F & N. They lost the Coca Cola franchise, the share plunged asthis will effect their earnings;
Attached is the F and N chart with and ATR stop at 7.15. It looks like panic selling right into a major support. Because of low debt levels, strong cash flows and a wide product line of basic necessities such as milk and soft drinks they are well supported.
Although almost every analyst in town is recommending to sell, I would wait for the dust to settle before getting caught in the panic. If support breaks you must exit. I will. There is evidence of insider buying on this break. Bad news is a way insiders manipulate shares to buy from the sheep investors at a cheap price. In my opinion the break in F & N was a manipulation
Have good week ahead
Don't forget: If you are free this talk given by Sam Gibson Executive of Man Group and Ang Kok Heng, CIO of Phillip will explain a way to profit/protect your assets in the unfolding world wide depression. Please let me know if you wish to attend as seats are limited and we expect a full house. Refreshments will be served and the talk is FOC.
Man Alternative Investment talk
Date : 3 March 2009 (Tuesday)
Time : 7.00pm - 9.45pm
Venue : Westside Room 1, 2 & 3, Level 8,
Boulevard Hotel, Mid Valley City,
Lingkaran Syed Putra,
59200 Kuala Lumpur
Despite deep recession and potential depression in Singapore, the US, Europe, UK, Russia, Korea and Japan there are some bright spots.
Vietnam is booming as related to me from a businessman friend of mine who just returned from Hanoi . Cambodia is also doing well with an influx of Korean and Japanese multinationals. The China stockmarkets have also bottomed out after falling over 70 % . Malaysia has also held up rather well. In Malaysia there are many jobs for those willing to work and opportunities for business.
While in Singapore last week, my driver was a qualified accountant. Airport attendants were local Singaporeans in their 50s and 60s who consider themselves lucky to have a job. At least Singaporeans are willing to take a humble but honorable job when times are hard.
I have been asked this question many times: Will Obama's plan work ? In a word no, it will fail. Perhaps there will be some short term gain but the foundation of his plan: Tax and Spend our way to prosperity is a plan which is like building a sand castle next to the Pacific ocean. One big wave will destroy the castle..
The only countries which are surviving the on going financial crises are countries such as Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Malaysia which have low taxes, high savings rates, and very low levels of welfare, unemployment compensation.
Singapore will survive because of high savings rates, low taxes and no welfare. This is the Singapore policy: If you do not work, you do not have the right to eat. This in my opinion is a good incentive to find work no matter how humble is the job.
Obama has sold the American public a pipe dream. But this dream will evaporate like a puff of smoke. He feels he can rob Peter to pay Paul. Unfortunately Paul, the businessman is the man who creates wealth through his entrepreneurial spirit and capital.
Paul saved his money and that is the capital which can save America. Obama through his proposed higher taxes on capital gains, dividends and increased taxes on high net worth investors/ business will cofiscate this capital which can be used to bail out those who have a welfare mentality, bought homes they could not afford, have no savings and max out their credit cards
These are voters and Obama's main goal is to keep power at all costs- No wonder he is always smiling. His smile is like the smile of my Labrador dog just before he pounces on and eats a rat. My dog is a specialist in catching,killing and eating rats
Obama will also transfer this wealth to politicians, chronies, and special interest groups who have no incentive to create wealth but owe him loyalty.
There are ony 2 ways to make money : work for it or steal it. Obama's plan is to steal it but in my opinion that will end up badly
Many of you including myself are holding F & N. They lost the Coca Cola franchise, the share plunged asthis will effect their earnings;
Attached is the F and N chart with and ATR stop at 7.15. It looks like panic selling right into a major support. Because of low debt levels, strong cash flows and a wide product line of basic necessities such as milk and soft drinks they are well supported.
Although almost every analyst in town is recommending to sell, I would wait for the dust to settle before getting caught in the panic. If support breaks you must exit. I will. There is evidence of insider buying on this break. Bad news is a way insiders manipulate shares to buy from the sheep investors at a cheap price. In my opinion the break in F & N was a manipulation
Have good week ahead
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