Next Master the Markets Foundation Course 1.5 days - Sept 14-15, 2009. Call Dolly 03 4252 4149 to register ! Bursa Malaysia (KLSE) :-) martin_tf_wong@hotmail.com: 01/01/2009 - 02/01/2009

Friday, January 30, 2009

9:20 am - LPI is breaking higher !


There were news of share buyback by LPI !

9:19 am - KLCI is falling like a rock this morning !


Thursday, January 29, 2009

4:51 pm - KLCI closed with a doji - lot of uncertainty !


3:45 pm - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine

Dear Traders,

Continued fear, instability, loss of trust in banks and financial institutions combined with debasement of currencies is the spark that is igniting the gold markets and the liquidation of most stocks and property in world markets.

As investors our main focus must be capital preservation. Focus only on the highest grade equities with long term proven management, earnings, dividends and growth.

Companies such as Public Bank, BAT, Guiness, F & N, Dutch Lady and Nestle, PPB Group are some that come to mind. Buy these on panic selloffs, massive Dow Jones Drops and sell into optimism.


Here is some analysis from The Elliot Wave Theorist- Jan 22

The stock market is a thing of terrible beauty. Watching it work is like glimpsing an owl swoop down and grasp a mouse in its claws or watching a shark hone in on its prey. Its motions are efficient and its dead eyes convey no emotion. For 12 years from 1995 to 2007 a vicious bear, disguised as a siren, whistled and sang to its future victims, drawing them into its den. It is still whistling and singing, but only when it has time to breath between bites of feasting.

Physical gold is a good investment but beware of con men and fraudsters. Bank Negara/ Maybank sells gold bullion/ Kejang coins and there is no worry about being cheated. Public Bank offers gold passbook accounts in which they promise to redeem based on spot gold price.

Below is some interesting analysis about gold from Sir Charts

The bottom line is that the demand for gold is highly elastic and can increase dramatically, even from today's record levels. At the same time, however, the supply of new gold is highly inelastic. It is heavily constrained, and even with an all-out effort can only be increased very slowly - if at all.The fundamentals for gold have never been stronger. Countries around the world are debasing their currencies at a rate that is historically unprecedented. Demand for gold should only continue to increase as more and more people shift from paper currencies and financial assets to hard assets and tangible forms of wealth.
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The funny money gang would have you believe it is gold that is the anachronism. History speaks against this shortsighted claim. Lack of discipline in the global monetary system has sponsored the likes of Bear Sterns, Fannie and Freddie, Lehman Brothers, AIG, the year of the bailout, Madoff, all of the other recent officially sponsored atrocities, and those yet to come. This infestation has just begun. The US is now an economic wasteland and you can clearly see why a system with no discipline (gold) always leads to fraud and excess. Human nature doesn’t change.Roosevelt illegally confiscated gold from the American people in 1933. Nixon reneged on the international agreement to exchange foreign currencies for gold 38 years later. We can thank this dynamic duo and most of the administrations ever since for our present predicament. The world has been on a fiat standard (no standard) since Nixon’s default. Gold has been targeted for at least the last 76 years in one form or another. The Fort Knox gold vaults are likely barren.
Obama may confiscate gold held by Americans citing an economic emergency just as Roosevelt did.

I also like commodities such as Palm Oil. Crude Oil is bottoming as well as base metals such as copper, lead, nickle which dropped over 72 % from its highs.

Palm oil on Friday had a successsful test of support on low volume right at weekly support in the face of bad news and negative analyst reports.

I am buying some 3rd month CPO on Wednesday open and risk 90 points RM 2250 per contract. with an open target. Should the trade move in my favor will lock in profit using an ATR stop.

This trade is not for the faint hearted. Expect extreme volatility.

If you like to sleep at night with less volatility than outright palm oil futures, the Man AHL hedge fund continues to motor ahead. They have been able to tame volatility in 2008 and are one of the few investments that made money in 2008. In 2 weeks they are launching an AHL capital guaranteed fund and will have a presentation at the Hilton PJ. Will inform you when the date gets closer. Sam Gibson will be there and you may ask any questions you like.

CPO 3rd Month

3:39 pm - KLCI is staying above 880 support level


The selling down has stopped and it is ready to test 890 resistance level - remember the gap .

9:51 am - Chart of the Week - Pos Holdings


Buy if it take out high @ Rm1.92 and put your stop at rm1.80.

9:25 am - KLCI attempting to close the gap at 890 today !


Friday, January 23, 2009

5:05 pm - Happy CNY !

Wishing you a Happy CNY and we will be back on 28 Jan 2009.

Wishing you a Bullish Year !

Thursday, January 22, 2009

1:28 pm - KLCI is testing 879/878 support level !


Closing this gap means KLCI is weak ~!

9:21 am - KLCI is up due to overnite DJIA !


If it can hold above 878, it is good because there was a gap. Gap like to close itself.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

4:43 pm - KLCI is forming a doji !


2:10 pm - Special Offers !

Dear Traders,

In the interest of serving you below is an unusual offer to upgrade your knowledge and skills from my friend Azizi Ali who is a famous writer, motivator and financial consultant . This is a one time deal for you to upgrade yourself at a very reasonable price.
Please read the below message from Azizi:

Regards
Bill and Martin

Happy new year!

A good friend of mine, The Millionaires Coach Azizi Ali, has just launched a new online bookstore www.BookPlanet.com.my. I’ve logged onto the site and find it very useful. More importantly, most of the books are selling at discounts ranging from 10% all the way up to 40%. Of course, some of the books are packaged together and selling at fantastic discounts. Further, you can also get free copies of his latest eBook on wealth creation How I Made Millions From Lessons Learnt From Tun Daim if you purchase his Omnibus.

The best news is that I’ve managed to convince him to give you a Special Deal for the new year. If you make a purchase from the store between 20th Jan 2009 to 2nd Feb 2009, you will get an additional 10% off the prices of the books. That’s right – you will get an additional 10% off from whatever discount is listed on the website! For example, The Millionaire Chronicles by Azizi is selling for RM31.92 on the online store, which is 20% off from the retail price of RM39.90. You, however will pay only RM27.93, or 30% off the retail price! As this is a super super deal, I urge you to take advantage of this offer, particularly as it is a limited time deal.

The following are the terms and conditions of the offer:

§ The offer is only valid for purchase of books from www.BookPlanet.com.my.
§ The purchase must be made between 20th Jan 2009 to 2nd Feb 2009.
§ The offer is only valid for individual book purchase and not for Powerpacks and Omnibus.
§ You must pay the price stated on the invoice first and BookPlanet will refund you the additional 10% discount. They will include a cheque for that amount together with your order.
§ The next step is very important. Please include “Bill” when entering your order details so

that the crew will know that you are entitled for this special deal. There will be a box where you can enter this detail when you are making the order. If you do not enter this detail, the staff will be unable to differentiate your order from the other orders, which means that you will not get that additional discount.

I personally think this is a great and fabulous deal as it offers you an opportunity to increase your financial knowledge at a fraction of the usual price. So take advantage of this offer, log on to www.BookPlanet.com.my and make your order now.
All the best for 2009.

BookPlanet/Joint Ventures/Bill Pax

11:16 am - KLCI looks to form a doji - uncertain about this downtrend !


There is strength on down bar !

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Monday, January 19, 2009

4:51 pm - KLCI ready to break lower tomorrow - leveling at 890 support level !


3:36 pm - KLCI looks to break 890 today !


Unlikely I think as there is no catalyst to break with the swore-in of Obama on Tuesday and holiday in US tonite.

11:53 am - KLCI is testing 890 level for 3rd time.


The more time it is testing it, the highly it can break thru the support level .

11:46 am - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine

Dear Traders,

Dante Aligheri, an Italian poet of the 13th Century wrote the masterpiece Divine Comedy, an epic tale about hell, purgatory, and heaven. Hell is described as the living place of Satan, devils and wicked souls, all condemed to eternal punishment after death; a place of pain and torment. At the entrance of hell is a sign, "Abandon hope, all ye who enter here."

It certailly feels like Dante's inferno on Wall St these days amid the worst economic times since the great depression of 1930. The global economy is reeling from the sub-prime mortage meltdown that has infected the entire financial system. shaking investor confidence and breeding deep mistrust. The fraud scandle engineered by Bernie Madoff, fund manager, stealing billions of dollars in a pyramid scheme has only made matters worse.

Global Money Trends 16 Jan 09


This cartoon drawn 15 years ago by Bill Watterson sums up what happened. He saw it coming ! One of our recent graduates forwarded this: If you have anything useful to share please forward to me. I really thank the gentleman who contributed this









My advice: lighten up on all your long US share positions on a run towards Dow 9000 which may happen on the short term euphoria of Obama who is characterized as the 2nd coming of Christ. When people see Obama is not Christ expect the Dow to collapse. YOu may purchase on the NYSE LQD the ETF dealing in high grade corporate bonds and at the same time short sell TLT the 20 year government bond ETF.

Currently the spread is trading at 16 and should narrow to 6 in weeks ahead. US Treasury bonds are topping out on lack of demand narrow range bars ( Who wants a return of only 2.1 % on a 20 year bond ?) while high grade corporate bonds are performing well as a safe haven. The interest rate for this fund is over 5.8% with a chance of a handsome capital gain. The downside of this spread trade is limited unless the sun fails to rise tomorrow morning- a nuclear attack or a comet hitting the earth. I am joking: if the spread widens to 22 cut the position.

A spread is safer than an outright long position on the LQD should we have another major bank collapse or financial disaster.

The same goes for the KLSE deal in non cyclicals such as food/ beverages/ plantation companies/ tobacco/telcom/ power- even if the economy slows people still have to eat, use electricity, hand phones, internet and smoke. Avoid banks, small caps, speculative shares- it is OK to trade for quick profits but make sure you have a written trading plan with a clear exit strategy win or lose and have the discipline to execute.

Obama favors green/alternative energy, bio fuel. He unlike George Bush is not in the pocket of the oil companies and he said he will support bio- diesel and that should favor plantation companies. Only play the solid fundamental well managed cash rich companies but be ready to take your profits when the Obama mania wears off- perhaps when the KLSE approaches 1000/ 1200 and Dow at 9000/ 9500.

Personally I and Martin are investing in the AHL non capital guaranteed Man fund which has performed well in 2008- attached is the fund performance.This has not been hurt by the drop in the AUD - Minimum investment in this RM 62,500 and there are no exit charges.

It seems the more and bigger financial disasters the better Man performs. Perhaps Dante would have invested in Man had they offered the fund in his day.

The Man capital guaranteed fund was affected due to the drop in the AUD but managed to hold steady due to the fine performance of AHL, the driver of the fund. The AUD has recovered a good part of its losses versus the RM and it has the potential to beat almost all investments in 2009.

Have a good week
Bill

9:39 am - KLCI continue to move sideway for today !


DJIA is closed tonite due to holiday, so limited action today !

9:33 am - FKLI gap up due to higher closing of DJIA +68.73


Saturday, January 17, 2009

4:31 pm - Chart of the Week - Ramunia


Instead of buying, if you have Ramunia, sell this immediately on Monday ! This is a good time to exit and cut your losses !

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

4:52 pm - KLCI closed lower down -9.87


KLCI is going to test 910 tomorrow !

2:50 pm - KLCI is breaking lower - the support at 910.0


10:48 am - PBB is having a 18 L/C last week.


However, PBB is testing the market now to flush out the seller.

10:46 am - KLCI is moving sideway with support at 910.0


Monday, January 12, 2009

4:57 pm - KLCI closed higher +4.5 pts.


Trend is still up !

4:57 pm - KLCI closed higher +4.5 pts.


Trend is still up !

3:28 pm - Market Report by Bill Wermine

Dear Traders,

Friday, The Dow was down 143 points however 83 of those points was in the last 9 minutes of trading. THis Dow drop in my opinion was small in the face of the worst month of US job losses since 1946 - 524,000 jobs . If this had happened 3 months ago, the Dow would have dropped at least 600 points. It means most of the bad news is mostly discounted.

The crowd of KLSE traders will react negatively Monday to the Dow drop but this would be an opportunity to pick up at a cheaper price shares you have been following. The crowd of analists focus on the closing price of the day and will react. Not many follow the intraday price action and the last 9 minute 83 point Dow drop was in my opinion a manipulation by smart money to create fear so they can buy cheaper from the sheep investors on Monday. The negative close will create more fear and doom/ gloom.

Notice the strong support building in the KLSE and strength in the background as evidenced by climactic selling on 31 Nov 08. Focus on the strong high quality shares with good sales and earnings + dividends. This powerful sign of strength should persist.

Remember the stock market is a jungle with large predators prowling around to catch the weak and sick prey. They will employ many tactics to scare you out, shake you out and take away your quality holdings under the cover of fear, uncertainty and bad news.

Have a good week ahead
Bill

KLSE Weekly Chart

3:23 pm - KLCI is looking bearish !


11:49 am - 18 L/C in the making for KPJ

Firdaus,
Here is my analysis on KPJ.
There is a lot of resistance at rm2.80. It is not technically a good buy due to overhead resistance.



If you wish to buy, here is what you do :

Wait for it to take out RM2.75 at the end of the day. If by 4.30-4.45, it is above RM2.75-2.76, buy before market on close.

9:15 am - KLCI is set for sideway or upway today !


Sunday, January 11, 2009

10:08 am - Chart of the Week - KNM


Buy if it take out the high @ 0.52 and put a tight stop at 0.46 as crude oil is very volatile.

Thursday, January 8, 2009

2:32 pm - KLCI is taking a really beating !


9:42 am - KLCI is down -10.58 pts.


However, Government plans to announce another package of stimulus for the economy.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

9:53 am - KLCI is retreating a bit today !


The trend is still up !

Monday, January 5, 2009

5:22 pm - KLCI finally in bullish area ! Super bullish !


1:51 pm - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine


Dear Traders,

I am taking a bullish contrarian view for Q 1 2009. It appears Obama and his Democratic majority will apply heavy pressure on banks to lend again. Interest rates on 30 year fixed rates have dropped to 5.1 % the lowest in 37 years. Many rentors are finding it is cheaper to buy a house than rent and this could put a floor on US house prices and a floor on the credit crises.

Bob Farrell, who was the dean of Merrill Lynch research for 44 years until his retirement in 2001 lived through the roaring 60s, the brutal bear of 1972/1973 the high tech mania of 1990 and the crash of 1987. Before retiring he drew up 10 commandments of investing: Rule 1: Markets tend to return to the mean over time, the market tends to exagerate the highs and the lows. The selling is overdone and so is the buying. Both tend to overshoot. In time the market always reverts to the mean.

10 year T Bond chart



The 10 year US T Bond drives interest rates for the world. It looks like the bubble is bursting as professionals move from super safe treasuries to stocks, commodities and out of US Dollar.

With zero interest rates and massive printing of US Dollars, stimulus and give away packages inflation should take hold. Obama will do all in his power to get the US economoy moving.

For this reason the first quarter should be bullish for commodity related stocks, crude oil and gold. A good way to play oil is the USO fund and XLE energy fund. and GLD . These are exchange traded funds listed on the NYSE and can be traded through your Ameritrade account. Use a 10 % risk on these positions. I also like high quality plantation shares as well as high quality index linked KLSE shares paying dividends.

For the accounts under my management will be accumulating in the week ahead from our cash.

There are no guarantees that these trades will be profitable and as a general rule protective sell stops of 10 % below purchase price is advisable.

In the words of Warren Buffet, "Uncertainty is the friend of the buyer of long term values."

Have a prosporous New Year
Bill

10:47 am - Kossan break out again !


9:55 am - KNM is going for 18 L/C


9:13 am - KLCI is turning very bullish !


Saturday, January 3, 2009

8:11 am - Chart of the Week - Genting

Refer to my posted blog on 2 Jan 2009.

Friday, January 2, 2009