Friday, October 31, 2008
11:10 am - KNM still has no signal to buy yet !
I got a lot of questions whether you can buy at the market now ! It is ok if you are going to hold for several days to 3 weeks.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
2:25 pm - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
On Wednesday, Sam Gibson, an executive with Man gave a briefing on Man Funds at the PJ Hilton. Many of you including myself and Martin are invested in Man and are worried as many hedge funds are bust or lost most of their assets.
Here are the highlights of his briefing:
1- Man AHL has performed positively this quarter making a small profit. Man AHL is the driver of Man Essential/ Eclipse Funds.
2 - Losses as reflected in your Fame account are because the AUD dropped in value versus the RM. Sam reported that the AUD may recover in the next few months
as world credit problems resolve themselves and banks start to lend again. He also mentioned that Australian Banks are solid and not caught up in the credit crises and this is AUD supportive. Demand for commodities which Australia produces is still strong from China despite the negative press.
3 The Australian government has announced that they will guarantee all bank deposts. This means your capital guarantee for the Man Funds is secure. Your guarantee is secured in AUD government bonds and no exposure to AIG/ Lehmen or any mortgage/subprime bonds.
4 The holding company of Man listed in London FTSE is an asset manager and not a bank which means they do not suffer credit problems that UK banks are suffering.
5 Man AHL deals in commodity markets and exploits trends both up and down. Because commodities are traded on an an official exchange such as the CPOT or CME with a clearing house and in cash there is virtually no risk of default.
6 Man is a fund of funds and not a one man show fund. THis means you are diversified among markets and managers. Most hedge funds that went bust recently are one man show funds.
7 Man fund withdrawals by fearful investors have been very limited in this market turmoil testifing to the confidence of institutional and professional investors in Man.
After listening to the presentation I have decided to personally commit more funds to Man. The newly launched capital guaranteed fund will close on 28 November.
There will be no newsletter this weekend as I am going to Vietnam on holiday. Any questions on your account or investments with me please call Martin 03 2084 9999 ext 3533. Will be back on Tuesday
The KLSE is holding at the monthly support having being tested 3 times. Risk is limited at this levels but continue to deal in only the highest quality issues.
Have a good week ahead
Bill
On Wednesday, Sam Gibson, an executive with Man gave a briefing on Man Funds at the PJ Hilton. Many of you including myself and Martin are invested in Man and are worried as many hedge funds are bust or lost most of their assets.
Here are the highlights of his briefing:
1- Man AHL has performed positively this quarter making a small profit. Man AHL is the driver of Man Essential/ Eclipse Funds.
2 - Losses as reflected in your Fame account are because the AUD dropped in value versus the RM. Sam reported that the AUD may recover in the next few months
as world credit problems resolve themselves and banks start to lend again. He also mentioned that Australian Banks are solid and not caught up in the credit crises and this is AUD supportive. Demand for commodities which Australia produces is still strong from China despite the negative press.
3 The Australian government has announced that they will guarantee all bank deposts. This means your capital guarantee for the Man Funds is secure. Your guarantee is secured in AUD government bonds and no exposure to AIG/ Lehmen or any mortgage/subprime bonds.
4 The holding company of Man listed in London FTSE is an asset manager and not a bank which means they do not suffer credit problems that UK banks are suffering.
5 Man AHL deals in commodity markets and exploits trends both up and down. Because commodities are traded on an an official exchange such as the CPOT or CME with a clearing house and in cash there is virtually no risk of default.
6 Man is a fund of funds and not a one man show fund. THis means you are diversified among markets and managers. Most hedge funds that went bust recently are one man show funds.
7 Man fund withdrawals by fearful investors have been very limited in this market turmoil testifing to the confidence of institutional and professional investors in Man.
After listening to the presentation I have decided to personally commit more funds to Man. The newly launched capital guaranteed fund will close on 28 November.
There will be no newsletter this weekend as I am going to Vietnam on holiday. Any questions on your account or investments with me please call Martin 03 2084 9999 ext 3533. Will be back on Tuesday
The KLSE is holding at the monthly support having being tested 3 times. Risk is limited at this levels but continue to deal in only the highest quality issues.
Have a good week ahead
Bill
11:46 am - Market outlook by Bill Wermine !
Dear Traders,
On Wednesday, Sam Gibson, an executive with Man gave a briefing on Man Funds at the PJ Hilton. Many of you including myself and Martin are invested in Man and are worried as many hedge funds are bust or lost most of their assets.
Here are the highlights of his briefing:
1- Man AHL has performed positively this quarter making a small profit. Man AHL is the driver of Man Essential/ Eclipse Funds.
2 - Losses as reflected in your Fame account are because the AUD dropped in value versus the RM. Sam reported that the AUD may recover in the next few months
as world credit problems resolve themselves and banks start to lend again. He also mentioned that Australian Banks are solid and not caught up in the credit crises and this is AUD supportive. Demand for commodities which Australia produces is still strong from China despite the negative press.
3 The Australian government has announced that they will guarantee all bank deposts. This means your capital guarantee for the Man Funds is secure. Your guarantee is secured in AUD government bonds and no exposure to AIG/ Lehmen or any mortgage/subprime bonds.
4 The holding company of Man listed in London FTSE is an asset manager and not a bank which means they do not suffer credit problems that UK banks are suffering.
5 Man AHL deals in commodity markets and exploits trends both up and down. Because commodities are traded on an an official exchange such as the CPOT or CME with a clearing house and in cash there is virtually no risk of default.
6 Man is a fund of funds and not a one man show fund. THis means you are diversified among markets and managers. Most hedge funds that went bust recently are one man show funds.
7 Man fund withdrawals by fearful investors have been very limited in this market turmoil testifing to the confidence of institutional and professional investors in Man.
After listening to the presentation I have decided to personally commit more funds to Man. The newly launched capital guaranteed fund will close on 28 November.
There will be no newsletter this weekend as I am going to Vietnam on holiday. Any questions on your account or investments with me please call Martin 03 2084 9999 ext 3533. Will be back on Tuesday
The KLSE is holding at the monthly support having being tested 3 times. Risk is limited at this levels but continue to deal in only the highest quality issues.
Have a good week ahead
Bill
On Wednesday, Sam Gibson, an executive with Man gave a briefing on Man Funds at the PJ Hilton. Many of you including myself and Martin are invested in Man and are worried as many hedge funds are bust or lost most of their assets.
Here are the highlights of his briefing:
1- Man AHL has performed positively this quarter making a small profit. Man AHL is the driver of Man Essential/ Eclipse Funds.
2 - Losses as reflected in your Fame account are because the AUD dropped in value versus the RM. Sam reported that the AUD may recover in the next few months
as world credit problems resolve themselves and banks start to lend again. He also mentioned that Australian Banks are solid and not caught up in the credit crises and this is AUD supportive. Demand for commodities which Australia produces is still strong from China despite the negative press.
3 The Australian government has announced that they will guarantee all bank deposts. This means your capital guarantee for the Man Funds is secure. Your guarantee is secured in AUD government bonds and no exposure to AIG/ Lehmen or any mortgage/subprime bonds.
4 The holding company of Man listed in London FTSE is an asset manager and not a bank which means they do not suffer credit problems that UK banks are suffering.
5 Man AHL deals in commodity markets and exploits trends both up and down. Because commodities are traded on an an official exchange such as the CPOT or CME with a clearing house and in cash there is virtually no risk of default.
6 Man is a fund of funds and not a one man show fund. THis means you are diversified among markets and managers. Most hedge funds that went bust recently are one man show funds.
7 Man fund withdrawals by fearful investors have been very limited in this market turmoil testifing to the confidence of institutional and professional investors in Man.
After listening to the presentation I have decided to personally commit more funds to Man. The newly launched capital guaranteed fund will close on 28 November.
There will be no newsletter this weekend as I am going to Vietnam on holiday. Any questions on your account or investments with me please call Martin 03 2084 9999 ext 3533. Will be back on Tuesday
The KLSE is holding at the monthly support having being tested 3 times. Risk is limited at this levels but continue to deal in only the highest quality issues.
Have a good week ahead
Bill
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
2:48 pm - Panic selling for IOI Corp - most down in one day -17.9 pct
I heard euro 300 mio losses either in forex or derivatives losses . Wait for tomorrow news !
Thursday, October 23, 2008
10:18 am - I will be presenting a talk on FKLI/FCPO this coming Sat 25 Oct 2008
CIMB Events
OCT 25 (Kuala Lumpur) – 8.00am to 1.30pm CIMB Bursa Market Chat 2008 – To be held at Securities Commission Kuala Lumpur.
My talk is at 11.45 pm . There are other speakers speaking on market outlook of Msia and online trading by CIMB.
Light refreshments will be served. Admission is Fee.
Call CIMB general line at 03 2084 9999 and ask for itrade for registration.
See you there.
Rgds,
-martin-
OCT 25 (Kuala Lumpur) – 8.00am to 1.30pm CIMB Bursa Market Chat 2008 – To be held at Securities Commission Kuala Lumpur.
My talk is at 11.45 pm . There are other speakers speaking on market outlook of Msia and online trading by CIMB.
Light refreshments will be served. Admission is Fee.
Call CIMB general line at 03 2084 9999 and ask for itrade for registration.
See you there.
Rgds,
-martin-
9:18 am - Not every stocks is down. The good quality counters are still holding up nicely
If you have garbage shares you are holding now, you are doomed. They are worthless now ! But if you buy quality companies where the business you can understd, you std better chance. Look at Panasonic !
Look at Nestle !
Look at BAT
9:08 am - Recent low was 888. If KLCI break 888 level, we wud have lower low KLCI !
It looks like it is going to break this week if not.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
1:10 pm - KLCI is hardly moved but FKLI has broken low !
Regional market has fallen a lot too ! Be ready to lower market.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Monday, October 20, 2008
10:13 am - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders,
I have had a number of calls this week, " Should I sell all my shares ? Is Malaysia in recession? Everything is so bad. I am depressed. All the economic news on TV is bad. Major banks in the world are collapsing- Is it safe to keep my money in the bank ? Is the Man Fund Capital guaranteed still a guarantee ? What if NAB Bank in Australia who underwrites the Man capital guarantee goes bust? Do I lose all my money ?
Fear is at the absolute extreme. Perhaps at the 1931 depression levels- It is as though Chicago was hit by a nuclear bomb !
My advice: DO NOT THROW AWAY YOUR QUALITY SHARES or your Man Investments. (Man AHL made a 7 % return in September covering the JUly and August loss)
Here is the reality: Warren Buffet has opened his wallet to buy for his own account. When he opens his wallet we are close to a bottom. The news is creating the fear and panic and driving the herd of sheep to the slaughter house. The tigers of the market are enjoying the feast.
Look at facts and logic: Credit and oil are the lifeblood of the world economy- oil has collapsed which gives a huge economic boost but the media and most investors are not discounting the almost 50 % drop in crude oil. Credit is beginning to unfreeze. This will cause the US dollar to drop, AUD/MR rate to move in the AUD favor and commodities to pick up and the KLSE/world markets to begin a recovery. Just like our body- when we suffer an injury it takes time to heal. The healing has started.
On Wednesday, you are invited to a private event: Please let me know your questions about current performance/capital guarantee so we can ask Sam.
Mr Sam Gibson from Man Investments will share on how alternative investment can help to enhance your total portfolio while Our CIO, Mr Ang Kok Heng will share his views on the advantages of foreign investments and the analysis on historical performance of Man Investment funds.
Details of the talk are as below:
Date : 22 October 2008 (Wednesday)
Time : 7.00pm - 9.45pm
Venue : Kristal Ballroom 1,
1st Floor East Wing, Hilton Petaling Jaya Hotel,
No 2 Jalan Barat,
46200 Petaling Jaya.
7.00 pm Registration
7.30 pm Alternative Investment Opportunities Through Man Investment
by Mr Sam Gibson of MAN Investment
8.30 pm BREAK*
8.45 pm Voyaging the Financial Tsunami
by Mr Ang Kok Heng, Chief Investment Officer of Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd
9.45 pm Question and Answer Session
*Refreshments will be provided.
Please RSVP with Azimah at 03-2711 3038 or email me This seminar is free of charge.
DOW 30 Futures with support building off a double bottom. It takes time to heal. TG issued a classic shakeout signal on 13 October showing that scared sellers are giving to strong hand smart money buyers. Despite the doom and gloom Malaysia is much stronger economically than the US. The political problems in Malaysia are a storm in a teacup and have nothing to do with the supply and demand for CPO etc. .
I have had a number of calls this week, " Should I sell all my shares ? Is Malaysia in recession? Everything is so bad. I am depressed. All the economic news on TV is bad. Major banks in the world are collapsing- Is it safe to keep my money in the bank ? Is the Man Fund Capital guaranteed still a guarantee ? What if NAB Bank in Australia who underwrites the Man capital guarantee goes bust? Do I lose all my money ?
Fear is at the absolute extreme. Perhaps at the 1931 depression levels- It is as though Chicago was hit by a nuclear bomb !
My advice: DO NOT THROW AWAY YOUR QUALITY SHARES or your Man Investments. (Man AHL made a 7 % return in September covering the JUly and August loss)
Here is the reality: Warren Buffet has opened his wallet to buy for his own account. When he opens his wallet we are close to a bottom. The news is creating the fear and panic and driving the herd of sheep to the slaughter house. The tigers of the market are enjoying the feast.
Look at facts and logic: Credit and oil are the lifeblood of the world economy- oil has collapsed which gives a huge economic boost but the media and most investors are not discounting the almost 50 % drop in crude oil. Credit is beginning to unfreeze. This will cause the US dollar to drop, AUD/MR rate to move in the AUD favor and commodities to pick up and the KLSE/world markets to begin a recovery. Just like our body- when we suffer an injury it takes time to heal. The healing has started.
On Wednesday, you are invited to a private event: Please let me know your questions about current performance/capital guarantee so we can ask Sam.
Mr Sam Gibson from Man Investments will share on how alternative investment can help to enhance your total portfolio while Our CIO, Mr Ang Kok Heng will share his views on the advantages of foreign investments and the analysis on historical performance of Man Investment funds.
Details of the talk are as below:
Date : 22 October 2008 (Wednesday)
Time : 7.00pm - 9.45pm
Venue : Kristal Ballroom 1,
1st Floor East Wing, Hilton Petaling Jaya Hotel,
No 2 Jalan Barat,
46200 Petaling Jaya.
7.00 pm Registration
7.30 pm Alternative Investment Opportunities Through Man Investment
by Mr Sam Gibson of MAN Investment
8.30 pm BREAK*
8.45 pm Voyaging the Financial Tsunami
by Mr Ang Kok Heng, Chief Investment Officer of Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd
9.45 pm Question and Answer Session
*Refreshments will be provided.
Please RSVP with Azimah at 03-2711 3038 or email me This seminar is free of charge.
DOW 30 Futures with support building off a double bottom. It takes time to heal. TG issued a classic shakeout signal on 13 October showing that scared sellers are giving to strong hand smart money buyers. Despite the doom and gloom Malaysia is much stronger economically than the US. The political problems in Malaysia are a storm in a teacup and have nothing to do with the supply and demand for CPO etc. .
Have a good week
Bill
9:10 am - KLCI is test 900 and broken below. Let's see if it can closed above 900
Level 900 is a crucial level !
Sunday, October 19, 2008
2:56 pm - Chart of the Week - Opus.
Here is a speculative one ! Opus. Volume is relatively low. Buy if it take out RM 1.01. Stop loss at 0.99.
Friday, October 17, 2008
9:06 am - This is a buying opportunity once the COG is taken out !
Tomorrow wud be your entry ! This is a short term trade.Here is a comment from a blog reader.
Anonymous said...
martin say cut loss knm at bottom. now knm strong rebound.
Martin said...
No regrets ! If you have to cut loss at your pre-defined level, you cut. When you see the market rebound, you get back in back, buy again whenever you see opportunities.Trading is not just hold onto your losses and try to guess the market.The current market environment is a trading mkt strategy.
You preserve your capital and dont want to be right. Else that is ego trading.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
4:20 pm - Looking at KNM, this cud be the final wash before the market is ready for upmove !
From here onward, market may move sideway !
9:54 am - We are almost at the bottom now ! But not yet !
Looking at the monthly chart - here is KLCI.
But this is not the right time to buy yet ! It is almost futile to throw your share now unless you need the money. The market may hover at this range for the next year or two. I hope I am wrong !
9:36 am - KNM going another carnage ! Sell Down again !
velan said...
how unlucky i am.. i bought KNM ofr 92 cents yesterday 14th.. and today it went down 25% exclude brokerage.. huh? i;m going crazy what i';m supposed to do.. .. will this share improve in near future? anyone know bout this share latest news..? please throw some lights..
how unlucky i am.. i bought KNM ofr 92 cents yesterday 14th.. and today it went down 25% exclude brokerage.. huh? i;m going crazy what i';m supposed to do.. .. will this share improve in near future? anyone know bout this share latest news..? please throw some lights..
Here is my reply to you !
Dear Velan,
I am sorry to hear that you too was "sucked" by the media and popular beliefs to buy as the market is heading lower.
I am sorry to hear that you too was "sucked" by the media and popular beliefs to buy as the market is heading lower.
As this point, I know it is difficult for you to cut losses. But you must. Remember Transmile, one of graduate of my seminar, average down this counter and he almost lose 100%.
Right now ! Get an education and come and attend my trading seminar. I am doing one trading seminar on Nov 3,4 2008. If you can come, I can share with you how you can be ready to buy when the market return back to bullish !
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
12:05 am - KLCI tried to close yesterday gap !
If it closed below 950. This spell bad news for KLCI. Downtrend or sideway market is expected.
9:56 am - PB Bank is getting a hit from the US Banking crisis !
Time to get rid of your PB Bank. Erase some of them if you have them !
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
9:28 am - KLCI gap up due to overwhelming DJIA overnite gain !
I expect to see higher high closing !
Monday, October 13, 2008
4:50 pm - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine
Dear Traders & Investors,
The market consensus is overwealmingly bearish. Read the newspapers and see the doom and gloom, panic and fear. Emotions rather than logic are dominating the mood. The Economist magazine showed an investor swinmming on the top of the ocean and a giant shark waiting to eat him up. Is it so bad ? Is the market saying something about itself while the experts are preaching that the end of the world is near ? Remember bad news is good news for the media.
Martin and I held an investment talk Sunday to a crowd of over 60 investors. We asked the usual question. How many are bullish ? No one raised their hand. How many are bearish ? Almost everyone responded.
Looking at the KLSE chart tells a different story. Major monthly support is being tested and it is holding. Valuations are at 1997 panic levels so there is very small risk at this point. KLSE is up 15 points today. Accumulate quality issues at this level.
We are holding a market talk next Saturday at CIMB Auditorium to share the curent market outlook/ opportunities and why we are in this financial mess. Details/map are below with map attached.
The market consensus is overwealmingly bearish. Read the newspapers and see the doom and gloom, panic and fear. Emotions rather than logic are dominating the mood. The Economist magazine showed an investor swinmming on the top of the ocean and a giant shark waiting to eat him up. Is it so bad ? Is the market saying something about itself while the experts are preaching that the end of the world is near ? Remember bad news is good news for the media.
Martin and I held an investment talk Sunday to a crowd of over 60 investors. We asked the usual question. How many are bullish ? No one raised their hand. How many are bearish ? Almost everyone responded.
Looking at the KLSE chart tells a different story. Major monthly support is being tested and it is holding. Valuations are at 1997 panic levels so there is very small risk at this point. KLSE is up 15 points today. Accumulate quality issues at this level.
We are holding a market talk next Saturday at CIMB Auditorium to share the curent market outlook/ opportunities and why we are in this financial mess. Details/map are below with map attached.
Bill & Myself are presenting a talk on trading opportunities in the Bursa Malaysia & Global Outlook on Sat 18 Oct, 2008. The talk is free. You are welcomed to bring friends along. Seats are limited. See attachment to register.
Rgds, -Martin Wong/ Bill
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