Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
11:31 am - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine
Below is my outlook for the stock market in 2009. It will be published in Malaysian Business in their end Jan edition:
By the way, we plan a Traders Club meeting on Sat 7 Feb at 10 AM at CIMB auditorium and plan to have the head of Technical analysis of CIMB - (to be confirmed) - who will give his 2009 stock market outlook. Please let me know if you wish to attend Attached is the latest valuation of Man Essential, the recent launch. (30 Nov 2008 valuation)
How to Minimize your Costs and Risks while riding the 2009 stock market Bull
Below is a prophetic chart from Deutsche Bank research. It shows that stock markets bottom out a little more than half-way through recessions.
Based on this chart, I expect that 2009 will likely be a much better year for the markets than the year we have just endured. From this chart it appears that we are more than half way through the recession and probability is high that we will soon have a market recovery.
The Fuel to drive the Bull
We are on the verge of the Obama administration “stimulating” the US economy through public works and infrastructure projects, likely to the tune of nearly $1 trillion.
Obama’s program is likely to stimulate the economy and invigorate world markets in the near term.
The Federal Reserve has also signaled that it will do everything within its power to stimulate the economy. In the eyes of central planners, desperate times call for desperate measures. And the Fed is clearly desperate.
With their latest policy statement, issued on 22 December 2008, it is clear that the monetary helicopters have arrived. Not only have short term interest rates been cut to nearly zero, the Fed has also stated that it will resort to “alternative” means to juice the economy.
Have a prosporous New Year,
Bill
Monday, December 29, 2008
Friday, December 26, 2008
Thursday, December 25, 2008
9:02 am - Merry Xmas and Happy New Year !
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
9:06 am - Malaysian shares seen flat in thin holiday trade
Malaysian shares are expected to open little changed in thin holiday trading on Wednesday after U.S. stocks extended losses overnight. "Stocks should extend range-bound trade amid weak investor participation ahead of the Christmas holiday tomorrow," said research firm TA Securities in its morning note. Malaysia's benchmark stock index closed Tuesday 0.26 percent lower at 871.16. "The bearish external lead from further drop in overnight U.S. markets given concerns over the viability of the U.S. auto industry, plunging home prices and worsening recession should act to dampen sentiment in the near term," said TA. U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday on further deterioration in the housing market, while worry over weak consumer spending hurt retailers in the final stretch of the Christmas shopping season. Here are the factors that may affect Malaysian stocks on Wednesday. >
Malaysia Airports gets nod for restructuring plan > Malaysia AirAsia, Sime in talks on new airport > Asia bond sales set to pick up as freeze relents > Etisalat says its Iran licence bid was highest > Malaysia's auto sales down 6.7 pct Nov yr/yr > US housing slide worsens; Spain joins recession > Biden says deal near on US economic stimulus plan > Wall St stumbles on economic data, retail anxiety > Oil falls below $39 on economic gloom > SEA Stocks-S'pore near 2-week low, Thai, Manila gain > Dollar gains vs yen, down vs euro in thin trading > Longer-dated bonds rise on weak home sales data > Gold slips on profit-taking in thin trade
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Monday, December 22, 2008
8:57 pm - Market Outlook from Bill Wermine
Some of this is commentary from Investors Business Daily. It makes sense to have some quality KLSE shares going into 2009, I expect that 2009 will likely be a much better year for the markets than the year we have just endured. In the immediate term, the volatility index is in a downtrend. This implies that the wholesale liquidation is easing up.
We are also on the verge of the Obama administration “stimulating” the economy through public works and infrastructure projects, likely to the tune of nearly $1 trillion. It will be difficult for the new administration to surpass the previous administration’s level of corruption and “crony capitalism”, but I wouldn’t place a bet that they won’t.
And even without the inherent corruption, government stimulus plans are notoriously inefficient and wasteful. A quote from The Wall Street Journal, sums it up well:
"Keynesian 'pump-priming' in a recession has often been tried, and as an economic stimulus it is overrated. The money that the government spends has to come from somewhere, which means from the private economy in higher taxes or borrowing. The public works are usually less productive than the foregone private investment."
So, while the long-term implications will probably be a disaster, Obama’s program is likely to stimulate the economy and invigorate the markets in the near term.
The Federal Reserve has also signaled that it will do everything within its power to stimulate the economy. In the eyes of central planners, desperate times call for desperate measures. And the Fed is clearly desperate.
With their latest policy statement, issued on Tuesday, it is clear that the monetary helicopters have arrived. Not only have short term interest rates been cut to nearly zero, the Fed has also stated that it will resort to “alternative” means to juice the economy.
In typical fashion, the statement was crafted in language that obfuscates what is really going on. But when you strip away the complexities and jargon it amounts to this: (1) the Fed will use its balance sheet to manipulate the credit and equity markets directly and (2) the central bank will fabricate whatever amount of “money” is necessary to stimulate the economy.
And that brings me to the crux of the issue. We now know that it was a very bad idea to paper over the dot-com bubble with an even bigger bubble in real estate. Easy money and more debt did nothing but cause a greater problem down the road. It is the equivalent of trying to revive a drunk by pouring another shot of whisky down his throat.
And that is exactly what we are doing all over again, papering over all the previous bubbles with the biggest one of all – a bubble in government bonds. Forget the fundamentals for a moment (You know, like the fact that our government is in the hole for more than $70 trillion, when you factor in retirement and health care obligations, along with foreign debt) and just take a look at the chart of long-term U.S. Treasuries.
Just like all the other bubbles, this one too will eventually collapse.
Below is the TG chart of the US 30 year bond. Volume is dropping as price blows off which is evidence of no demand by professionals.
With interest rates at less than 2 % in most countries money will flow into equities and gold. Our paper money is guaranteed to lose purchasing power. Man funds is a safe haven no matter what happens
Have a Merry Christmas and prosporous New Year
Bill
8:55 am - Free Book from Tradeguider
Below is the link to download a complimentary PDF printable copy of "Master The Markets" by former syndicate trader and inventor of Volume Spread Analysis, Tom Williams. (Value $99.00). You will need a copy of Adobe Acrobat reader which you can download free from the link provided and note that the download takes about 3 minutes on a high speed connection and your screen will go blank as the download is in progress.
Here is the link to download the complimentary copy of "Master The Markets".
http://www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf
Here is a link to download Acrobat Reader if you do not have it:
http://www.download.com/Adobe-Reader/3000-2378_4-10000062.html
Here is the link to view the seminar filmed live in Kuala Lumpur:
http://www.tradeguider.com/malaysia/presentation.aspx
If you have any questions or need to contact us please call Darren Holmes at the number shown below.
Good Trading,
Gavin
Gavin Holmes
CEO
TradeGuider Systems International
111, W.Jackson Blvd, Suite 2010,
Chicago, Illinois, 60604
United States
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Friday, December 19, 2008
2:40 pm - PBB Bank is breaking upside !
Thursday, December 18, 2008
10:47 am - Bernie Madoff exposure !
Many of you including Martin and Myself are holding Man Hedge Fund. We had a scare yesterday when it was announced Asset manager Bernie Madoff was exposed in a Ponzi sceme and Man was exposed to the Madoff funds. Below is the response from PCM and Man Investments.
Bottom line: we can sleep at night.
The exposure is minimal (less than 1 %)and in fact Man made a return of 4 to 5 % in Nov. This is because Man is a fund of funds like a unit trust . If one share of a 100 share unit trust fund goes bankrupt it will minimally affect the portfolio)
In fact Man for 19 years has survived unprecedented market volatility, financial disasters, major financial collapses, extreme currency and commodity fluctuations and managed to prosper. Man has even prospered in 2008 in the face of 40- 50 % declines in most world equity markets
If you think 2009 will be more of the same give me a call to invest some more of your money and make money while most of the sheep investors go to the slaughter house.
Have a good Christmas Holiday and look forward to prosperity in 2009
Bill__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
We spoke to official of Man Investment regarding their exposure to the Madoff funds which were suspended by SEC to facilitate investigation into the Ponzi scheme to fraud investors.
According to the announcement of Man Group Plc, they have US$360m invested via RMF's funds. The amount represents about 1.5% of RMF's US$24bn fund. RMF does not have any direct investment in Madoff funds and the exposure is due to their investment in other hedge funds which may have some exposure to Madoff funds.
Those affected are basically the institutional portions. Whereas in the case of guarantee funds promoted by Man Australia, according to the official of Man Investment, the exposure is very very minimum via some of the 200+ funds that RMF invested.
Between the two funds that have some exposure to Madoff and some of our clients have invested in is OM-IP15Seven Series 2 launched end of 2006. The fund is 1/3 RMF four Season and 2/3 AHL. As at Oct '08, the fund price is at AUD1.2334 and is up another 4-5% in Nov (according to official of Man Investment) due to strong performance by AHL.
We recognise the risk of investing in hedge fund and some of the reasons we have chosen Man Investment are as follows:-
(a) Man Investment is a subsidiary of Man Group Plc, a London-listed company, which is regulated by the exchange.
(b) All the Man OM-IP funds have 3 components - bond, AHL and fund of hedge funds (eg RMF, Glenwood, Baywater etc) and hence more diversified.
(c) RMF being fund of hedge funds is well diversified and normally no more than 5% of the fund is invested in each hedge fund.
The fraud is unexpected and caught many investors by surprise. Due to the diversification of Man funds as well as the strong performance of AHL - a trend-following futures trader benefitting from the up and down of the markets, Man funds have performed well thus far, based on net asset value.
Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Monday, December 15, 2008
Saturday, December 13, 2008
1:47 pm - Stocks advance amid hope for automaker rescue
Friday, December 12, 2008
2:43 pm - KLCI down due to auto bail news failing !
Asian Stocks, U.S. Futures, Dollar Tumble as Auto Bailout Fails
By Chen Shiyin and Chua Kong Ho
Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks, U.S. index futures and the dollar tumbled after the Senate rejected a $14 billion automaker bailout plan for American automakers, threatening millions of jobs and a deepening of the global recession.
Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. tumbled more than 11 percent on concern the failure of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC would threaten suppliers that also serve Asian automakers. Denso Corp., the world’s largest listed auto-parts maker, plunged 10 percent. The dollar fell to a 13-year low against the yen, while the cost of protecting Asian bonds against default advanced. Treasuries rose, pushing two-year note yields to a record low. Metal and crude oil prices slumped.
“A potential failure in U.S. automakers will have immediate reverberations throughout the U.S. economy, which will affect demand for Asian products and add to recessionary pressures,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors, which has $81 billion.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 3.5 percent to 84.98 as of 2:55 p.m. in Tokyo, paring a weekly gain to 6.9 percent.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 4.3 percent. The measure dropped 2.9 percent yesterday on concern talks to rescue GM and Chrysler would fail and as initial jobless claims soared to a 26-year high.
“It’s over with,” Majority Leader Harry Reid said on the Senate floor in Washington. “I dread looking at Wall Street tomorrow. It’s not going to be a pleasant sight.”
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average retreated 5.2 percent to 8,269.11. The CSI 300 Index sank 3.3 percent in China, after a government official said growth will slow more sharply next quarter and as retail sales grew at the slowest pace in nine months. China Mobile Ltd. fell 7.1 percent in Hong Kong.
Annual Slump
South Korea’s Kospi Index lost 4 percent, led by KB Financial Group Inc., after the Bank of Korea said the economy will expand at the slowest pace in 11 years in 2009.
The MSCI World Index has dropped 44 percent this year, on course for its worst annual retreat on record as writedowns and credit losses neared $1 trillion amid the worsening financial crisis. Declines this year have wiped out almost $30 trillion from global stock market values, taking the MSCI Asian index’s valuation to 12.5 times estimated profit, about a third lower than at the start of 2008.
Honda, Japan’s second-largest automaker, tumbled 13 percent to 1,908 yen. Nissan, the third biggest, plunged 11 percent to 310 yen. Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s No. 1 automaker, dropped 6.2 percent to 43,450 won.
Connecticut Democrat Christopher Dodd, who was involved in the talks, said earlier talks faltered on a Republican demand that unionized autoworkers accept a reduction in wages next year, rather than later, to match those of U.S. autoworkers who work for foreign-owned companies.
‘Iconic Industry’
“More than saddened, I’m worried this evening about what we’re doing with an iconic industry,” Dodd said. “In the midst of deeply troubling economic times we are going to add to that substantially.”
Denso plunged 11 percent to 1,444 yen. Aisin Seiki Co., Japan’s largest maker of car transmissions, sank 12 percent to 1,131 yen.
“The potential bankruptcy of U.S. automakers has huge ramifications for the many companies that depend on them, from steelmakers, tiremakers to the car dealers,” said Daphne Roth, the Singapore-based head of equity research at ABN Amro Private Bank, which manages about $27 billion of Asian assets.
The failure of the talks sent the dollar to 89.89 yen, the lowest since August 1995. The Markit iTraxx Japan index of credit-default swaps rose 11.5 basis points to 332.5 at 10:27 a.m. in Tokyo, according to prices from BNP Paribas SA.
‘Domino Impact’
Platinum, used to make catalytic converters for car and truck exhaust systems, fell as much as 3.4 percent in Asia, leading metal prices lower. Crude oil dropped as much as 5.9 percent, eroding yesterday’s 10 percent rally.
The yield on the 10-year note fell 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 2.50 percent as of 2:05 p.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 3.75 percent security due in November 2018 rose 1 point, or $10 per $1,000 face amount, to 110 30/32.
The yield reached 2.489 percent, the lowest level since 1954, according to monthly records by Federal Reserve. Two-year rates dropped 10 basis points to 0.69 percent, the least since regular sales began in 1975.
“This is seriously bad news,” said Victor Shum, senior principal at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. “If the automakers go bankrupt then they’ll be a whole domino impact of potential job losses. If the recession is deepened then surely it will impact demand.”
U.S. Unemployment
Signs of slowing expansion in the U.S. also weighed on the region’s stocks. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits surged to 573,000 last week, the Labor Department said. That’s the highest level since November 1982.
James Hardie, which gets more than three-quarters of its sales from the U.S., fell 9.6 percent to A$3.78, on track for its largest drop since Nov. 19. Canon Inc., the world’s biggest digital-camera maker, declined 6 percent to 2,585 yen.
Li & Fung Ltd., a supplier of toys and clothing to retailers, plunged 14 percent to HK$14.56 in Hong Kong after KB Toys Inc. filed for bankruptcy in the U.S. KB Toys, an 86-year-old toy retailer, said it owes the company $27.2 million.
China Mobile, the world’s No. 1 phone company by value, lost 7.1 percent to HK$76.50. China Shipping Development Co., the nation’s largest oil carrier, fell 16 percent to HK$7.37, the biggest loss on MSCI’s Asian index.
Slowing Growth
China’s growth will slow more sharply in the first quarter of 2009 before stabilizing and then recovering, Liu He, vice minister of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs said in Beijing today. Retail sales rose 20.8 percent in November, the slowest pace in nine months, the National Bureau of Statistics also said today.
Wuliangye Yibin Co., China’s biggest spirits maker, fell 3.6 percent to 15.14 yuan. Concern that China’s economic growth will slow spurred the government to pledge on Nov. 4 to implement a 4- trillion yuan ($583 billion) economic stimulus package and the benchmark lending rate was cut by the most in 11 years.
MSCI’s Asian index has rallied 13 percent since reaching a five-year low on Nov. 20 as governments from Australia to South Korea took steps to protect their economies from the financial crisis.
South Korea yesterday slashed interest rates to a record low to shore up its economy. The nation’s central bank said today economy will grow 2 percent next year from an estimated 3.7 percent this year. KB Financial plunged 13 percent to 32,050 won.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
2:26 pm - Market Outlook by Bill Wermine
This report is for those who invested in Man Funds or might be considering to add to your positions.
There has been extreme volatility in world currency markets as panic stricken investors world wide have liquidated shares, commodities, property, mortgage and corporate bonds. Volatility and price drops such as these have not been seen since the world depression of 1929- 1931.
In this atmosphere of fear and uncertainty investors have stampeding into the ultimate safe haven- US Treasury bonds. 3 month US bill rates have dropped to 0.01 percent.The 10 year bond is at 2.5 % while the 30 year bond is at 3.005 %. These are 1930 depression levels for these instruments. Large funds are buying treasuries to ride out the storm. This is creating a bubble much like the internet bubble and the recent crude oil bubble.
Chart of the US 30 year bond tells the story. As price goes higher and higher volume gets lesser and lesser which is a signal that demand is dropping. There are fewer buyers at the top as smart money is selling to the herd of sheep who are caught up in the buying panic. All bubbles end like this.
Smart money is beginning to reason, why should I be satisfied with a 1 % return in the US Dollar as the US government bailouts of banks/ auto companies which guarantee a debasing of the US Dollar currency. Lower volume on the above chart shows smart money is beginning to withdrawOnce Obama takes power he will bailout the housing industry and Joe Public, with massive stimulus packages adding more liquidity to the system. The US Dollar on purchasing power parity is no longer cheap. The AUD is 10 % undervalued based on this PPP benchmark. Moreover US Productivity has dropped to 0 % as the recession deepens
Once the Treasury bubble pops expect the Euro/ Australian Dollar/ to gain and this will benefit us who hold Man AHL and other AUD Man Funds.. Also expect the KLSE and other world markets to gain from an inflow of funds by those who are selling their US Bonds once the panic ends.
The actual Man funds have done well this year unlike the majority of hedge funds.. Please read the attached report detailing Man performance. Man being a trend following fund profits with volatility and be sure 2009 will be a volatile year.
The AHL pure commodity/futures non guaranteed fund is open ended and you can join anytime . This could be a good investment for 2009 no matter what happens in the stock market. Let me or Martin know if you have any questions on this or if you wish to invest.
Best regards
Bill
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Friday, December 5, 2008
9:56 am - I will back in office in Bursa Malaysia and on-line with the futures market.
You can call my handphone to place order at Martin 012 207 8633.
Rgds, -martin-
Thursday, December 4, 2008
9:34 pm - CIMB Commerce Square off limits to employee due to landslide occuring due to heavy rain downpour.
I will not be stationed at my office in CIMB Commerce Square Jalan Semantan due to the landslide occurring next to the office building.
I think the building is deemed unsafe.
I will be operating out from a disaster recovering site in Kompakar, Jalan Bersatu, PJ.
You can still call me to trade from my mobile phone 012 207 8633 or you can call Chong at 016 662 0881.
Will update and keep you posted tomorrow.
Rgds,
-martin-